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The Assessment of Climate Change on Rainfall-Runoff Erosivity in the Chirchik–Akhangaran Basin, Uzbekistan

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Listed:
  • Khusen Sh. Gafforov

    (State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China
    University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
    Key Laboratory of GIS & RS Application Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, Urumqi 830011, China
    Research Institute of Irrigation and Water Problems, Tashkent 100187, Uzbekistan)

  • Anming Bao

    (State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China
    University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
    Key Laboratory of GIS & RS Application Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, Urumqi 830011, China
    CAS Research Center for Ecology and Environment of Central Asia, Urumqi 830011, China)

  • Shavkat Rakhimov

    (Key Laboratory of GIS & RS Application Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, Urumqi 830011, China)

  • Tie Liu

    (State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China
    University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
    Key Laboratory of GIS & RS Application Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, Urumqi 830011, China
    CAS Research Center for Ecology and Environment of Central Asia, Urumqi 830011, China)

  • Farkhod Abdullaev

    (State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China
    University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
    Research Institute of Irrigation and Water Problems, Tashkent 100187, Uzbekistan)

  • Liangliang Jiang

    (State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China
    University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
    Key Laboratory of GIS & RS Application Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, Urumqi 830011, China)

  • Khaydar Durdiev

    (State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China
    University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
    Key Laboratory of GIS & RS Application Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, Urumqi 830011, China
    Research Institute of Irrigation and Water Problems, Tashkent 100187, Uzbekistan)

  • Eldiiar Duulatov

    (University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
    Institute of Geology, National Academy of Sciences of Kyrgyz Republic, Bishkek 720040, Kyrgyzstan)

  • Moldir Rakhimova

    (State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China
    University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
    Key Laboratory of GIS & RS Application Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, Urumqi 830011, China)

  • Yerbolat Mukanov

    (State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China
    University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
    Regional State Enterprise Kazhydromet, Nur-Sultan (Astana) 010000, Kazakhstan)

Abstract

Changes in the frequency or intensity of rainfall due to climate always affect the conservation of soil resources, which leads to land degradation. The importance of assessing past and future climate differences plays an important role in future planning in relation to climate change. The spatiotemporal variability of erosivity depending on precipitation using the rainfall erosivity (R) of Universal Soil Loss Equation under the global circulation model (GCM) scenarios in the Chirchik–Akhangaran Basin (CHAB), which is in the northeastern part of the Republic of Uzbekistan, was statistically downscaled by using the delta method in Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 during the periods of the 2030s, 2050s and 2070s. The (R) was used to determine the erosivity of precipitation, and the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) itself determined the effects of changes in erosivity. Ten weather station observational data points for the period from 1990 to 2016 were used to validate the global circulation models (GCMs) and erosion model. The assessment results showed an increase in precipitation from the baseline by an average of 11.8%, 14.1% and 16.3% for all models by 2030, 2050 and 2070, respectively, while at the same time, soil loss increased in parallel with precipitation by 17.1%, 20.5 % and 23.3%, respectively, in certain scenarios. The highest rainfall was observed for the models ACCESS1–3 and CanESM2 on both RCPs and periods, while more intense rainfall was the main reason for the increase in the spatial and temporal erosion activity of the rainfall-runoff. This study is a useful reference for improving soil conservation, preventing water erosion and ensuring the future sustainability of agricultural products, as well as improving the operational management and planning of agriculture.

Suggested Citation

  • Khusen Sh. Gafforov & Anming Bao & Shavkat Rakhimov & Tie Liu & Farkhod Abdullaev & Liangliang Jiang & Khaydar Durdiev & Eldiiar Duulatov & Moldir Rakhimova & Yerbolat Mukanov, 2020. "The Assessment of Climate Change on Rainfall-Runoff Erosivity in the Chirchik–Akhangaran Basin, Uzbekistan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(8), pages 1-21, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:12:y:2020:i:8:p:3369-:d:348271
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hualin Xie & Yanwei Zhang & Zhilong Wu & Tiangui Lv, 2020. "A Bibliometric Analysis on Land Degradation: Current Status, Development, and Future Directions," Land, MDPI, vol. 9(1), pages 1-37, January.
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    1. Tanja Micić Ponjiger & Tin Lukić & Biljana Basarin & Maja Jokić & Robert L. Wilby & Dragoslav Pavić & Minučer Mesaroš & Aleksandar Valjarević & Miško M. Milanović & Cezar Morar, 2021. "Detailed Analysis of Spatial–Temporal Variability of Rainfall Erosivity and Erosivity Density in the Central and Southern Pannonian Basin," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(23), pages 1-31, December.
    2. Altanshagai Batmunkh & Agus Dwi Nugroho & Maria Fekete-Farkas & Zoltan Lakner, 2022. "Global Challenges and Responses: Agriculture, Economic Globalization, and Environmental Sustainability in Central Asia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-21, February.

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