Author
Listed:
- Fang Ye
(China (Zhejiang) Pilot Free Trade Zone Research Institute, Zhejiang Ocean University, Zhoushan 316000, China
College of International Entrepreneurship, National Kunsan University, Kunsan 54150, Korea)
- Jaepil Park
(College of International Entrepreneurship, National Kunsan University, Kunsan 54150, Korea)
- Fen Wang
(School of economics and management, Zhejiang Ocean University, Zhoushan 316000, China)
- Xihua Hu
(Institute of Education, Wonkwang University, Iksan-si 54538, Korea)
Abstract
Tourism is the leading industry of island cities and the tourism carrying capacity is of great significance to the sustainable development of cities. This paper adopts the state-space model to construct an early warning indicator system for tourism carrying capacity from three aspects: nature, economy, and society, explores the early warning status, and spatial and temporal differences of tourism carrying capacity in Chinese island cities, and makes use of the BP(Back Propagation) neural network model to predict the development trend of early warnings. The results show that (1) from 2012 to 2018, the early warning status of China’s island cities’ tourism carrying capacity is generally on the rise, the natural carrying capacity system’s early warning situation has deteriorated, which is in a state of severe warning interval. The economic carrying capacity and social carrying capacity are on the rise, and the warning degree is from the super warning interval to the severe warning interval and then to the moderate warning degree. The forecast of the overall tourism carrying capacity early warning index from 2019 to 2021 presents an upward trend and is in the moderate warning interval. (2) The tourism carrying capacity early warning in China’s island cities shows a large spatial and temporal difference and the early warning values of each island city are different. The early warning value of Putuo tourism carrying capacity always ranks first, and Changdao has the worst performance. (3) In accordance with the contribution status of the subsystem to the total system, the Chinese island cities show regional differences in the northern, central, and southern area, showing two forms of pressure cities and pressure-carrying cities. The government can adopt different policies and measures in accordance with different characteristics of human environmental activities.
Suggested Citation
Fang Ye & Jaepil Park & Fen Wang & Xihua Hu, 2020.
"Analysis of Early Warning Spatial and Temporal Differences of Tourism Carrying Capacity in China’s Island Cities,"
Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-16, February.
Handle:
RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:12:y:2020:i:4:p:1328-:d:319503
Download full text from publisher
Citations
Citations are extracted by the
CitEc Project, subscribe to its
RSS feed for this item.
Cited by:
- Cheng Long & Song Lu & Jie Chang & Jiaheng Zhu & Luqiao Chen, 2022.
"Tourism Environmental Carrying Capacity Review, Hotspot, Issue, and Prospect,"
IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(24), pages 1-19, December.
- Ding-Yi Zhao & Yu-Yu Ma & Hung-Lung Lin, 2022.
"Using the Entropy and TOPSIS Models to Evaluate Sustainable Development of Islands: A Case in China,"
Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-25, March.
Corrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:12:y:2020:i:4:p:1328-:d:319503. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through
the various RePEc services.