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Scenario Analysis of Carbon Emissions in the Energy Base, Xinjiang Autonomous Region, China

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  • Jiancheng Qin

    (State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China
    College of Resource and Environment Sciences, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830046, China
    University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
    Cele National Station of Observation and Research for Desert Grassland Ecosystem in Xinjiang, Cele 848300, China)

  • Hui Tao

    (State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China
    Cele National Station of Observation and Research for Desert Grassland Ecosystem in Xinjiang, Cele 848300, China)

  • Minjin Zhan

    (Jiangxi Climate Center, Nanchang 330096, China)

  • Qamar Munir

    (Pakistan Meteorological Department, Islamabad 44000, Pakistan)

  • Karthikeyan Brindha

    (Institute of Geological Sciences, Free University of Berlin, 12249 Berlin, Germany)

  • Guijin Mu

    (State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China
    College of Resource and Environment Sciences, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830046, China)

Abstract

The realization of carbon emissions peak is important in the energy base area of China for the sustainable development of the socio-economic sector. The STIRPAT model was employed to analyze the elasticity of influencing factors of carbon emissions during 1990–2010 in the Xinjiang autonomous region, China. The results display that population growth is the key driving factor for carbon emissions, while energy intensity is the key restraining factor. With 1% change in population, gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, energy intensity, energy structure, urbanization level, and industrial structure, the change in carbon emissions was 0.80%, 0.48%, 0.20%, 0.07%, 0.58%, and 0.47%, respectively. Based on the results from regression analysis, scenario analysis was employed in this study, and it was found that Xinjiang would be difficult to realize carbon emissions peak early around 2030. Under the condition of the medium-high change rates in energy intensity, energy structure, industrial structure, and with the low-medium change rates in population, GDP per capita, and urbanization level, Xinjiang will achieve carbon emissions peak at of 626.21, 636.24, 459.53, and 662.25 million tons in the year of 2030, 2030, 2040, and 2040, respectively. At last, under the background of Chinese carbon emissions peak around 2030, this paper puts forward relevant policies and suggestions to the sustainable socio-economic development for the energy base area, Xinjiang autonomous region.

Suggested Citation

  • Jiancheng Qin & Hui Tao & Minjin Zhan & Qamar Munir & Karthikeyan Brindha & Guijin Mu, 2019. "Scenario Analysis of Carbon Emissions in the Energy Base, Xinjiang Autonomous Region, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(15), pages 1-18, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:11:y:2019:i:15:p:4220-:d:254777
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