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The Spatio-Temporal Characteristics and Modeling Research of Inter-Provincial Migration in China

Author

Listed:
  • Xiaomei Fan

    (School of Geographic Sciences, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China)

  • Hongguang Liu

    (College of Public Administration, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing 210095, China)

  • Zimeng Zhang

    (College of Public Administration, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing 210095, China)

  • Jie Zhang

    (College of Public Administration, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing 210095, China)

Abstract

The national census data during 1995 and 2000 and during 2005 and 2010 are selected in this paper to make an analysis of the spatio-temporal characteristics of the inter-provincial population migration in China. In addition, the general regression model, the extension regression model considering the historical dependent variable and the spatial lag model are established based on the gravity model to make the regression model on China’s inter-provincial population migration over two periods of time. The results show that: (1) the inter-provincial population migration increases rapidly in size with strong geographical proximity; (2) China’s inter-provincial population migration is still in the primary stage of the general process of population migration. In other words, the inter-provincial population emigration and immigration levels have increased greatly with the economic development; (3) Statistically, the inter-provincial population migration is negatively correlated with the level of economic development in the emigrant place and the migration distance and positively correlated with the level of economic development in the immigrant place and the population scale in the emigrant and immigrant places; and (4) The spatio-temporal factor is an important explanatory variable of population migration. The introduction of the historical dependent variable and the spatial lag factor can improve the regression effect of the gravity model greatly, and the historical variable and the spatial factor have strong explanatory power for the inter-provincial population migration.

Suggested Citation

  • Xiaomei Fan & Hongguang Liu & Zimeng Zhang & Jie Zhang, 2018. "The Spatio-Temporal Characteristics and Modeling Research of Inter-Provincial Migration in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(3), pages 1-14, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:10:y:2018:i:3:p:618-:d:133804
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    4. Rongwei Wu & Degang Yang & Lu Zhang & Jinwei Huo, 2018. "Spatio-Temporal Patterns and Determinants of Inter-Provincial Migration in China 1995–2015," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-22, October.
    5. Ying Pan & Jin Zhu & Zhongxu Zhao & Zhennan Li & Junxi Wu, 2023. "The dual effects of population migration on the achievement of sustainable development goals in Tibet, China," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 25(7), pages 5931-5947, July.
    6. Anna Visvizi & Miltiadis D. Lytras & Marta Pachocka, 2019. "Multiple Facets of Migration Research: Key Questions, Topics, and Avenues yet to Be Explored," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-5, December.
    7. Lishuo Shi & Wen Chen & Jiaqi Xu & Li Ling, 2020. "Trends and Characteristics of Inter-Provincial Migrants in Mainland China and Its Relation with Economic Factors: A Panel Data Analysis from 2011 to 2016," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-23, January.
    8. Galina Ševčenko-Kozlovska & Kristina Čižiūnienė, 2022. "A Study of the Relationship between Lithuanian International Migration Flows and Transport Sector Performance Indicators," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(16), pages 1-22, August.
    9. Fan, Xiao-mei & Liu, Hong-guang, 2021. "Global supply chain shifting: A macro sense of production relocation based on multi-regional input-output table," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 672-680.

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