IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jrisks/v9y2021i6p116-d572590.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A Statistical Model of Fraud Risk in Financial Statements. Case for Romania Companies

Author

Listed:
  • Andrada-Ioana Sabău (Popa)

    (Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Cluj-Napoca University Babes-Bolyai, 400591 Cluj-Napoca, Romania)

  • Codruța Mare

    (Faculty of Economics and Business Management, Cluj-Napoca University Babes-Bolyai, 400591 Cluj-Napoca, Romania)

  • Ioana Lavinia Safta

    (Faculty of Economics and Business Management, Cluj-Napoca University Babes-Bolyai, 400591 Cluj-Napoca, Romania)

Abstract

Tax avoidance is one of the most frequent reasons for which companies tend to resort to creative accounting techniques. The purpose of the study is to identify which of the eight-variables from the Beneish influences the most or least the outcome of the final score, as a percent, by developing a statistical model. The sample was selected from the Bucharest Stock Exchange and consists of 66 companies traded on the main market, for the years 2015–2019. The results show that from the total of the eight variables, GMI (Gross Margin Index), AQI (Asset Quality Index), DEPI (Depreciation Index) and TATA (Total Accruals to Total Assets) are significantly influencing the probability to commit fraud. The developed model is validated with only 10% of the non-fraud companies being mistakenly considered as fraud based on our model and vice versa.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrada-Ioana Sabău (Popa) & Codruța Mare & Ioana Lavinia Safta, 2021. "A Statistical Model of Fraud Risk in Financial Statements. Case for Romania Companies," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(6), pages 1-15, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jrisks:v:9:y:2021:i:6:p:116-:d:572590
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-9091/9/6/116/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-9091/9/6/116/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mehmet Huseyin Bilgin & Giray Gozgor & Chi Keung Marco Lau, 2017. "Institutions and gravity model: the role of political economy and corporate governance," Eurasian Business Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 7(3), pages 421-436, December.
    2. Alina Beattrice Vladu & Oriol Amat & Dan Dacian Cuzdriorean, 2014. "Truthfulness in accounting: How to discriminate accounting manipulators from non-manipulators," Economics Working Papers 1434, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    3. Lucia Svabova & Katarina Kramarova & Jan Chutka & Lenka Strakova, 2020. "Detecting earnings manipulation and fraudulent financial reporting in Slovakia," Oeconomia Copernicana, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 11(3), pages 485-508, September.
    4. Lev, B & Thiagarajan, Sr, 1993. "Fundamental Information Analysis," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(2), pages 190-215.
    5. Ines Hakim Hbaieb & Mohamed Ali Brahim Omri, 2019. "Tax management and tax fraud: evidence from Tunisian companies," International Journal of Managerial and Financial Accounting, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 11(2), pages 132-144.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Pavol Durana & Roman Blazek & Veronika Machova & Miroslav Krasnan, 2022. "The use of Beneish M-scores to reveal creative accounting: evidence from Slovakia," Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 17(2), pages 481-510, June.
    2. Paolo Vanini & Sebastiano Rossi & Ermin Zvizdic & Thomas Domenig, 2023. "Online payment fraud: from anomaly detection to risk management," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 1-25, December.
    3. Elena G. Popkova & Bruno S. Sergi, 2021. "Dataset Modelling of the Financial Risk Management of Social Entrepreneurship in Emerging Economies," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(12), pages 1-20, November.
    4. SAFTA (PLESA) Ioana Lavinia & SABAU (POPA) Andrada Ioana & BORLEA Sorin Nicolae, 2022. "Selecting Indicators Of Predicting Fraud Risk. Case Study For Romanian Business Environment," Revista Economica, Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 74(4), pages 75-90, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nirali Singh & Oriol Amat, 2020. "Detecting accounting fraud using quantitative techniques," Economics Working Papers 1738, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    2. Bradley Blaylock & Bradley P. Lawson & Michael A. Mayberry, 2020. "Taxable income, future profitability, and stock returns," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(7-8), pages 858-881, July.
    3. Pavol Durana & Lucia Michalkova & Andrej Privara & Josef Marousek & Milos Tumpach, 2021. "Does the life cycle affect earnings management and bankruptcy?," Oeconomia Copernicana, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 12(2), pages 425-461, June.
    4. Chih-Yang Tseng, 2020. "Family firms and long-term orientation of SG&A expenditures," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 55(4), pages 1181-1206, November.
    5. Thomas A. Gilliam, 2021. "Detecting Real Activities Manipulation: Beyond Performance Matching," Abacus, Accounting Foundation, University of Sydney, vol. 57(4), pages 619-653, December.
    6. Narongdech Thakerngkiat & Hung T. Nguyen & Nhut H. Nguyen & Nuttawat Visaltanachoti, 2021. "Do accounting information and market environment matter for cross‐asset predictability?," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 61(3), pages 4389-4434, September.
    7. Carlos J.O. Trejo-Pech & Richard N. Weldon & Michael A. Gunderson, 2016. "Earnings Management through Specific Accruals and Discretionary Expenses: Evidence from U.S. Agribusiness Firms," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 64(1), pages 89-118, March.
    8. Saqib Farid & Rubeena Tashfeen & Tahseen Mohsan & Arsal Burhan, 2023. "Forecasting stock prices using a data mining method: Evidence from emerging market," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(2), pages 1911-1917, April.
    9. Ostad, Parastoo & Mella, Javier, 2023. "The value relevance of corporate tax expenses in the presence of partisanship: International evidence," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    10. Godfred Adjapong Afrifa & Ahmad Alshehabi & Ishmael Tingbani & Hussein Halabi, 2021. "Abnormal inventory and performance in manufacturing companies: evidence from the trade credit channel," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 56(2), pages 581-617, February.
    11. Meng, Yongqiang & Shen, Dehua & Xiong, Xiong, 2023. "When stock price crash risk meets fundamentals," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    12. Hirshleifer, David & Kewei Hou & Teoh, Siew Hong & Yinglei Zhang, 2004. "Do investors overvalue firms with bloated balance sheets?," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 297-331, December.
    13. Dafydd Mali & Hyoung‐joo Lim, 2021. "Do Relatively More Efficient Firms Demand Additional Audit Effort (Hours)?," Australian Accounting Review, CPA Australia, vol. 31(2), pages 108-127, June.
    14. Bartram, Söhnke M. & Grinblatt, Mark, 2018. "Agnostic fundamental analysis works," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(1), pages 125-147.
    15. Anna Maria Biscotti & Eugenio D?Amico & Sabato Vinci, 2019. "The effectiveness of intellectual capital disclosure in market assessments of corporate value creation," FINANCIAL REPORTING, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2019(1), pages 5-35.
    16. Lu Zhang, 2017. "The Investment CAPM," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 23(4), pages 545-603, September.
    17. James Linck & Thomas Lopez & Lynn Rees, 2007. "The valuation consequences of voluntary accounting changes," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 28(4), pages 327-352, May.
    18. Charles E. Hyde, 2018. "The Piotroski F†score: evidence from Australia," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 58(2), pages 423-444, June.
    19. Ahmet TUREL & Asli TUREL & Belverd E. NEEDLES, Jr., 2012. "Financial Characteristics of High Performance Companies in Turkey: A Comparative Analysis of Stable Economy in the Financial Crisis Era," Journal of Accounting and Management Information Systems, Faculty of Accounting and Management Information Systems, The Bucharest University of Economic Studies, vol. 11(1), pages 4-26, March.
    20. Levent Alkan, 1997. "Forecasting of Corporate Performances on the Basis of Financial Indicators," Istanbul Stock Exchange Review, Research and Business Development Department, Borsa Istanbul, vol. 1(4), pages 39-72.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jrisks:v:9:y:2021:i:6:p:116-:d:572590. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.