IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jrisks/v12y2024i11p181-d1520797.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Climate-Related Default Probabilities

Author

Listed:
  • Augusto Blanc-Blocquel

    (Departamento de Finanzas, Facultad de Ciencias Empresariales, Universidad Austral, Paraguay 1950, Rosario 2000, Argentina
    Departament d’Estadística i Investigació Operativa, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya, 08034 Barcelona, Spain)

  • Luis Ortiz-Gracia

    (Departament d’Econometria, Estadística i Economia Aplicada, Universitat de Barcelona (UB), Av. Diagonal, 690, 08034 Barcelona, Spain
    RISKcenter, Institut de Recerca en Economia Aplicada (IREA), Universitat de Barcelona (UB), Av. Diagonal, 690, 08034 Barcelona, Spain)

  • Simona Sanfelici

    (Department of Economics and Management, University of Parma, 43125 Parma, Italy
    Member of the INdAM Research Group GNCS, 00185 Rome, Italy.)

Abstract

Climate risk refers to the risks associated with climate change and has already started to impact various sectors of the economy. In this work, we focus on the impact of physical risk on the probability of default for a firm in the agribusiness sector. The probability of default is estimated based on the Merton model, where the firm defaults when its asset value falls below the threshold defined by its liabilities. We study the relationship between the stock value of the firm and global surface temperature anomalies, observing that an increase in temperature negatively affects the stock value and, consequently, the asset value of the firm. A decrease in the asset value of the firm translates into an increase in its probability of default. We also propose a model to assess the exposure of the firm to transition risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Augusto Blanc-Blocquel & Luis Ortiz-Gracia & Simona Sanfelici, 2024. "Climate-Related Default Probabilities," Risks, MDPI, vol. 12(11), pages 1-19, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jrisks:v:12:y:2024:i:11:p:181-:d:1520797
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-9091/12/11/181/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-9091/12/11/181/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stefano Battiston & Antoine Mandel & Irene Monasterolo & Franziska Schütze & Gabriele Visentin, 2017. "A climate stress-test of the financial system," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 7(4), pages 283-288, April.
    2. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-470, May.
    3. Darwin Choi & Zhenyu Gao & Wenxi Jiang, 2020. "Attention to Global Warming," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 33(3), pages 1112-1145.
    4. Alexander J. McNeil & Rüdiger Frey & Paul Embrechts, 2015. "Quantitative Risk Management: Concepts, Techniques and Tools Revised edition," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 2, number 10496.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Masahiko Egami & Rusudan Kevkhishvili, 2020. "Time reversal and last passage time of diffusions with applications to credit risk management," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 24(3), pages 795-825, July.
    2. Battulga Gankhuu, 2022. "Merton's Default Risk Model for Private Company," Papers 2208.01974, arXiv.org.
    3. repec:hal:wpaper:hal-03458299 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Chen, Zhenzhu & Li, Li & Tang, Yao, 2024. "Weather, credit, and economic fluctuations: Evidence from China," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 221(C), pages 406-422.
    5. Joachim Sicking & Thomas Guhr & Rudi Schäfer, 2018. "Concurrent credit portfolio losses," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(2), pages 1-20, February.
    6. Monasterolo, Irene & de Angelis, Luca, 2020. "Blind to carbon risk? An analysis of stock market reaction to the Paris Agreement," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    7. Caballero, Diego & Lucas, André & Schwaab, Bernd & Zhang, Xin, 2020. "Risk endogeneity at the lender/investor-of-last-resort," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 283-297.
    8. Breckenfelder, Johannes & Maćkowiak, Bartosz & Marqués-Ibáñez, David & Olovsson, Conny & Popov, Alexander & Porcellacchia, Davide & Schepens, Glenn, 2023. "The climate and the economy," Working Paper Series 2793, European Central Bank.
    9. Hans Rau-Bredow, 2019. "Bigger Is Not Always Safer: A Critical Analysis of the Subadditivity Assumption for Coherent Risk Measures," Risks, MDPI, vol. 7(3), pages 1-18, August.
    10. Matteo Accornero & Giuseppe Cascarino & Roberto Felici & Fabio Parlapiano & Alberto Maria Sorrentino, 2018. "Credit risk in banks’ exposures to non‐financial firms," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 24(5), pages 775-791, November.
    11. Livieri, Giulia & Radi, Davide & Smaniotto, Elia, 2024. "Pricing transition risk with a jump-diffusion credit risk model: evidences from the CDS market," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 123650, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    12. Reinders, Henk Jan & Schoenmaker, Dirk & van Dijk, Mathijs, 2023. "A finance approach to climate stress testing," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    13. Tamás Kristóf, 2021. "Sovereign Default Forecasting in the Era of the COVID-19 Crisis," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-24, October.
    14. Birindelli, Giuliana & Miazza, Aline & Paimanova, Viktoriia & Palea, Vera, 2023. "Just “blah blah blah”? Stock market expectations and reactions to COP26," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    15. Sitong Yang & Shouwei Li & Xue Rui & Tianxiang Zhao, 2024. "The impact of climate risk on the asset side and liability side of the insurance industry: evidence from China," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 57(3), pages 1-51, June.
    16. Reghezza, Alessio & Altunbas, Yener & Marques-Ibanez, David & Rodriguez d’Acri, Costanza & Spaggiari, Martina, 2022. "Do banks fuel climate change?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    17. Andreas Muhlbacher & Thomas Guhr, 2017. "Extreme portfolio loss correlations in credit risk," Papers 1706.09809, arXiv.org.
    18. Hengxin Cui & Ken Seng Tan & Fan Yang, 2024. "Portfolio credit risk with Archimedean copulas: asymptotic analysis and efficient simulation," Papers 2411.06640, arXiv.org.
    19. Éric Vansteenberghe, 2024. "Insurance Supervision under Climate Change: A Pioneers Detection Method [La supervision des assurances lorsque le climat est bouleversé : une Méthode de Détection des Pionniers]," Débats économiques et financiers 43, Banque de France.
    20. Cheng-Der Fuh & Chuan-Ju Wang, 2017. "Efficient Exponential Tilting for Portfolio Credit Risk," Papers 1711.03744, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2019.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jrisks:v:12:y:2024:i:11:p:181-:d:1520797. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.