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Real-Time Estimation of R 0 for COVID-19 Spread

Author

Listed:
  • Theodore E. Simos

    (Laboratory of Applied Mathematics for Solving Interdisciplinary Problems of Energy Production, Ulyanovsk State Technical University, Severny Venetz St. 32, 432027 Ulyanovsk, Russia
    Scientific and Educational Center “Digital Industry”, South Ural State University, 76, Lenin Av., 454080 Chelyabinsk, Russia
    Section of Mathematics, Department of Civil Engineering, Democritus University of Thrace, 67100 Xanthi, Greece)

  • Charalampos Tsitouras

    (General Department, Euripus Campus, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, 34400 Athens, Greece)

  • Vladislav N. Kovalnogov

    (Laboratory of Applied Mathematics for Solving Interdisciplinary Problems of Energy Production, Ulyanovsk State Technical University, Severny Venetz St. 32, 432027 Ulyanovsk, Russia)

  • Ruslan V. Fedorov

    (Laboratory of Applied Mathematics for Solving Interdisciplinary Problems of Energy Production, Ulyanovsk State Technical University, Severny Venetz St. 32, 432027 Ulyanovsk, Russia)

  • Dmitry A. Generalov

    (Laboratory of Applied Mathematics for Solving Interdisciplinary Problems of Energy Production, Ulyanovsk State Technical University, Severny Venetz St. 32, 432027 Ulyanovsk, Russia)

Abstract

We propose a real-time approximation of R 0 in an SIR-type model that applies to the COVID-19 epidemic outbreak. A very useful direct formula expressing R 0 is found. Then, various type of models are considered, namely, finite differences, cubic splines, Piecewise Cubic Hermite interpolation and linear least squares approximation. Preserving the monotonicity of the formula under consideration proves to be of crucial importance. This latter property is preferred over accuracy, since it maintains positive R 0 . Only the Linear Least Squares technique guarantees this, and is finally proposed here. Tests on real COVID-19 data confirm the usefulness of our approach.

Suggested Citation

  • Theodore E. Simos & Charalampos Tsitouras & Vladislav N. Kovalnogov & Ruslan V. Fedorov & Dmitry A. Generalov, 2021. "Real-Time Estimation of R 0 for COVID-19 Spread," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(6), pages 1-9, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jmathe:v:9:y:2021:i:6:p:664-:d:520989
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