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Models for COVID-19 Daily Confirmed Cases in Different Countries

Author

Listed:
  • Hamdy M. Ahmed

    (Higher Institute of Engineering, El-Shorouk Academy, El-Shorouk City, Cairo 11837, Egypt)

  • Reda A. Elbarkouky

    (Physics and Engineering Mathematics Department, Faculty of Engineering, Ain Shams University, Cairo 11517, Egypt)

  • Othman A. M. Omar

    (Physics and Engineering Mathematics Department, Faculty of Engineering, Ain Shams University, Cairo 11517, Egypt)

  • Maria Alessandra Ragusa

    (Dipartimento di Matematica e Informatica, Università di Catania, Viale Andrea Doria 6, 95125 Catania, Italy
    RUDN University, 6 Miklukho, Maklay St, 117198 Moscow, Russia)

Abstract

In this paper, daily confirmed cases of COVID-19 in different countries are modelled using different mathematical regression models. The curve fitting is used as a prediction tool for modeling both past and upcoming coronavirus waves. According to virus spreading and average annual temperatures, countries under study are classified into three main categories. First category, the first wave of the coronavirus takes about two-year seasons (about 180 days) to complete a viral cycle. Second category, the first wave of the coronavirus takes about one-year season (about 90 days) to complete the first viral cycle with higher virus spreading rate. These countries take stopping periods with low virus spreading rate. Third category, countries that take the highest virus spreading rate and the viral cycle complete without stopping periods. Finally, predictions of different upcoming scenarios are made and compared with actual current smoothed daily confirmed cases in these countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Hamdy M. Ahmed & Reda A. Elbarkouky & Othman A. M. Omar & Maria Alessandra Ragusa, 2021. "Models for COVID-19 Daily Confirmed Cases in Different Countries," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(6), pages 1-13, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jmathe:v:9:y:2021:i:6:p:659-:d:520458
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Barua, Suborna, 2020. "Understanding Coronanomics: The economic implications of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic," MPRA Paper 99693, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    Cited by:

    1. Huaixing Li & Jiaoyan Wang, 2021. "Global Dynamics of an SEIR Model with the Age of Infection and Vaccination," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(18), pages 1-23, September.

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