IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jmathe/v13y2025i3p378-d1576180.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Monetary Policy and Systemic Risk in a Financial Network System Based on Multi-Agent Modeling

Author

Listed:
  • Qianqian Gao

    (School of Financial Technology, Shanghai Lixin University of Accounting and Finance, Shanghai 201209, China)

  • Hong Fan

    (Glorious Sun School of Business and Management, Donghua University, Shanghai 200051, China)

  • Congyuan Pang

    (Glorious Sun School of Business and Management, Donghua University, Shanghai 200051, China)

Abstract

Global inflation is high, and economic recovery is slow, leading to frequent monetary policy adjustments aimed at maintaining financial stability and accelerating recovery. To study the effects of monetary policies on the systemic risk of financial network systems and their mechanisms of action, this paper constructs a complex financial network system model. The model depicts the behavior of households, firms, banks, and the government (central bank) under the influence of monetary policies and their interactions. The study finds that systemic risk mainly arises from the uncertainty of business operations under market competition regulation. The interest rate policy affects the operation of the financial system by adjusting the operating costs and profits of banks and firms, while the required reserves policy primarily regulates the credit activities of banks and firms. Lower interest rates and higher reserve requirement ratios can mitigate systemic risk, but high reserve requirement ratios can make markets less active. Compared to the two policies, interest rate adjustments impact systemic risk more significantly and have a longer policy action cycle, while reserve requirement ratio adjustments create a strong short-term stimulus to the financial system. Considering the current market conditions, the central bank should adopt a more appropriate monetary policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Qianqian Gao & Hong Fan & Congyuan Pang, 2025. "Monetary Policy and Systemic Risk in a Financial Network System Based on Multi-Agent Modeling," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-24, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jmathe:v:13:y:2025:i:3:p:378-:d:1576180
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/13/3/378/pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/13/3/378/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Colletaz, Gilbert & Levieuge, Grégory & Popescu, Alexandra, 2018. "Monetary policy and long-run systemic risk-taking," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 165-184.
    2. Calimani, Susanna & Hałaj, Grzegorz & Żochowski, Dawid, 2022. "Simulating fire sales in a system of banks and asset managers," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    3. Popoyan, Lilit & Napoletano, Mauro & Roventini, Andrea, 2017. "Taming macroeconomic instability: Monetary and macro-prudential policy interactions in an agent-based model," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 117-140.
    4. Bubeck, Johannes & Maddaloni, Angela & Peydró, José-Luis, 2020. "Negative Monetary Policy Rates and Systemic Banks' Risk‐Taking: Evidence from the Euro Area Securities Register," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 52(S1), pages 197-231.
    5. Sara Cuenda & Maximiliano Fernández & Javier Galeano & José A. Capitán, 2018. "A Minimal Agent-Based Model Reproduces the Overall Topology of Interbank Networks," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 21(1), pages 1-2.
    6. Liu, Anqi & Paddrik, Mark & Yang, Steve Y. & Zhang, Xingjia, 2020. "Interbank contagion: An agent-based model approach to endogenously formed networks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    7. Gilbert Colletaz & Grégory Levieuge & Alexandra Popescu, 2018. "Monetary policy and long-run systemic risk-taking," Post-Print hal-03532481, HAL.
    8. P. Smaga & M. Wiliński & P. Ochnicki & P. Arendarski & T. Gubiec, 2018. "Can banks default overnight? Modelling endogenous contagion on the O/N interbank market," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(11), pages 1815-1829, November.
    9. Bargigli, Leonardo & Tedeschi, Gabriele, 2014. "Interaction in agent-based economics: A survey on the network approach," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 399(C), pages 1-15.
    10. Poledna, Sebastian & Bochmann, Olaf & Thurner, Stefan, 2017. "Basel III capital surcharges for G-SIBs are far less effective in managing systemic risk in comparison to network-based, systemic risk-dependent financial transaction taxes," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 230-246.
    11. Iwanicz-Drozdowska, Małgorzata & Rogowicz, Karol, 2022. "Does the choice of monetary policy tool matter for systemic risk? The curious case of negative interest rates," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    12. Zhang, Ailian & Pan, Mengmeng & Liu, Bai & Weng, Yin-Che, 2020. "Systemic risk: The coordination of macroprudential and monetary policies in China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 415-429.
    13. Xiao-Li Gong & Xiong Xiong & Wei Zhang, 2021. "Shadow banking, monetary policy and systemic risk," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(14), pages 1672-1693, March.
    14. Riccetti, Luca & Russo, Alberto & Gallegati, Mauro, 2013. "Leveraged network-based financial accelerator," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 1626-1640.
    15. Wolski, Marcin & van de Leur, Michiel, 2016. "Interbank loans, collateral and modern monetary policy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 388-416.
    16. Andrea Gurgone & Giulia Iori, 2022. "Macroprudential capital buffers in heterogeneous banking networks: insights from an ABM with liquidity crises," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(13-15), pages 1399-1445, October.
    17. Poledna, Sebastian & Thurner, Stefan & Farmer, J. Doyne & Geanakoplos, John, 2014. "Leverage-induced systemic risk under Basle II and other credit risk policies," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 199-212.
    18. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5hussro0tc951q0jqpu8quliqu is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Vitali, Stefania & Battiston, Stefano & Gallegati, Mauro, 2016. "Financial fragility and distress propagation in a network of regions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 56-75.
    20. De Caux, Robert & McGroarty, Frank & Brede, Markus, 2017. "The evolution of risk and bailout strategy in banking systems," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 468(C), pages 109-118.
    21. Gabbi, Giampaolo & Iori, Giulia & Jafarey, Saqib & Porter, James, 2015. "Financial regulations and bank credit to the real economy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 117-143.
    22. Kabundi, Alain & De Simone, Francisco Nadal, 2020. "Monetary policy and systemic risk-taking in the euro area banking sector," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 736-758.
    23. Peydró, José-Luis & Maddaloni, Angela, 2020. "Negative Monetary Policy Rates and Systemic Banks’ Risk-Taking: Evidence from the Euro Area Securities Register," CEPR Discussion Papers 14988, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    24. Iori, Giulia & Jafarey, Saqib & Padilla, Francisco G., 2006. "Systemic risk on the interbank market," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 61(4), pages 525-542, December.
    25. Sebastian Poledna & Stefan Thurner, 2016. "Elimination of systemic risk in financial networks by means of a systemic risk transaction tax," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(10), pages 1599-1613, October.
    26. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/5hussro0tc951q0jqpu8quliqu is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Adão, Luiz F.S. & Silveira, Douglas & Ely, Regis A. & Cajueiro, Daniel O., 2022. "The impacts of interest rates on banks’ loan portfolio risk-taking," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    2. Giorgio Fagiolo & Andrea Roventini, 2017. "Macroeconomic Policy in DSGE and Agent-Based Models Redux: New Developments and Challenges Ahead," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 20(1), pages 1-1.
    3. Mitja Steinbacher & Matthias Raddant & Fariba Karimi & Eva Camacho Cuena & Simone Alfarano & Giulia Iori & Thomas Lux, 2021. "Advances in the agent-based modeling of economic and social behavior," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 1(7), pages 1-24, July.
    4. Yuri Biondi & Feng Zhou, 2019. "Interbank credit and the money manufacturing process: a systemic perspective on financial stability," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 14(3), pages 437-468, September.
    5. Iwanicz-Drozdowska Małgorzata & Kurowski Łukasz, 2021. "Keep your friends close and your enemies closer – the case of monetary policy and financial imbalances," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 22(4), pages 383-414, November.
    6. Morteza Alaeddini & Philippe Madiès & Paul J. Reaidy & Julie Dugdale, 2023. "Interbank money market concerns and actors’ strategies—A systematic review of 21st century literature," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(2), pages 573-654, April.
    7. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/dcditnq6282sbu1u151qe5p7f is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Iwanicz-Drozdowska, Małgorzata & Rogowicz, Karol, 2022. "Does the choice of monetary policy tool matter for systemic risk? The curious case of negative interest rates," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    9. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/dcditnq6282sbu1u151qe5p7f is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Poledna, Sebastian & Bochmann, Olaf & Thurner, Stefan, 2017. "Basel III capital surcharges for G-SIBs are far less effective in managing systemic risk in comparison to network-based, systemic risk-dependent financial transaction taxes," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 230-246.
    11. Nguyen, Hoai Thi Thanh & Tram, Huong Thi Xuan & Nguyen, Linh Thi Thuy, 2023. "Interest rates and systemic risk:Evidence from the Vietnamese economy," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 27(C).
    12. Kanga, Désiré & Soumaré, Issouf & Amenounvé, Edoh, 2023. "Can corporate financing through the stock market create systemic risk? Evidence from the BRVM securities market," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    13. Ruggero Grilli & Gabriele Tedeschi & Mauro Gallegati, 2015. "Markets connectivity and financial contagion," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 10(2), pages 287-304, October.
    14. Delis, Manthos D. & Iosifidi, Maria & Mylonidis, Nikolaos, 2021. "Industry heterogeneity in the risk-taking channel," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    15. Ermanno Catullo & Antonio Palestrini & Ruggero Grilli & Mauro Gallegati, 2018. "Early warning indicators and macro-prudential policies: a credit network agent based model," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 13(1), pages 81-115, April.
    16. Valentina Macchiati & Giuseppe Brandi & Tiziana Di Matteo & Daniela Paolotti & Guido Caldarelli & Giulio Cimini, 2022. "Systemic liquidity contagion in the European interbank market," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 17(2), pages 443-474, April.
    17. Jiajia, Liu & Kun, Guo & Fangcheng, Tang & Yahan, Wang & Shouyang, Wang, 2023. "The effect of the disposal of non-performing loans on interbank liquidity risk in China: A cash flow network-based analysis," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 105-119.
    18. Apostolakis, George N. & Giannellis, Nikolaos, 2024. "Monetary policy and uncertainty spillovers: Evidence from a wavelet and frequency connectedness analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 95(PC).
    19. Gurgone, Andrea & Iori, Giulia & Jafarey, Saqib, 2018. "The effects of interbank networks on efficiency and stability in a macroeconomic agent-based model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 257-288.
    20. Douglas da Rosa München & Herbert Kimura, 2020. "Regulatory Banking Leverage: what do you know?," Working Papers Series 540, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    21. Andre R. Neveu, 2018. "A survey of network-based analysis and systemic risk measurement," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 13(2), pages 241-281, July.
    22. Foglia, Matteo & Addi, Abdelhamid & Wang, Gang-Jin & Angelini, Eliana, 2022. "Bearish Vs Bullish risk network: A Eurozone financial system analysis," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jmathe:v:13:y:2025:i:3:p:378-:d:1576180. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.