A Novel Gaussian Process Surrogate Model with Expected Prediction Error for Optimization under Constraints

Optimization, particularly constrained optimization problems (COPs), is fundamental in engineering, influencing various sectors with its critical role in enhancing design efficiency, reducing experimental costs, and shortening testing cycles. This study explores the challenges inherent in COPs, with a focus on developing efficient solution methodologies under stringent constraints. Surrogate models, especially Gaussian Process Regression (GPR), are pivotal in our approach, enabling the approximation of complex systems with reduced computational demand. We evaluate the efficacy of the Efficient Global Optimization (EGO) algorithm, which synergizes GPR with the Expected Improvement (EI) function, and further extend this framework to Constrained Expected Improvement (CEI) and our novel methodology Constrained Expected Prediction Error (CEPE). We demonstrate the effectiveness of these methodologies by numerical benchmark simulations and the real-world application of optimizing a Three-Bar Truss Design. In essence, the innovative CEPE approach promises a potent balance between solution accuracy and computational prowess, offering significant potential in the broader engineering field.