IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jmathe/v12y2024i6p811-d1354386.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

An Agent-Based Transmission Model of Major Infectious Diseases Considering Places: Forecast and Control

Author

Listed:
  • Jingwen Zhang

    (School of Economics and Management, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian 116024, China)

  • Lili Rong

    (School of Economics and Management, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian 116024, China)

  • Yufan Gong

    (School of Economics and Management, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian 116024, China)

Abstract

This paper enhances the agent model of ordinary individuals by incorporating the roles of places in the transmission, prevention, and control in the process, establishing a fundamental connection between these two types of agents through individual travel rules. The impact of real-world prevention and control measures on regional epidemic transmission is studied based on this model. Firstly, based on the analysis of place elements in typical cases of major infectious diseases, we give the classification of places. Secondly, the resident agent and the place agent are constructed and rules are established to form an agent-based major infectious disease transmission model considering the place. Then, the simulation process is established and an ideal regional environment is constructed to simulate overall changes in major infectious disease scale and spread speed. Additionally, evolutionary simulations are conducted for individual isolation intensity and place control time during emergency management stages to compare infection outcomes, and we analyze different roles and application scenarios of specific prevention and control measures. Finally, simulation results from real major infectious disease cases in Yangzhou, China, validate the effectiveness of this model in predicting major infectious disease development trends as well as evaluating prevention and control measure effects.

Suggested Citation

  • Jingwen Zhang & Lili Rong & Yufan Gong, 2024. "An Agent-Based Transmission Model of Major Infectious Diseases Considering Places: Forecast and Control," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-21, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jmathe:v:12:y:2024:i:6:p:811-:d:1354386
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/12/6/811/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/12/6/811/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jmathe:v:12:y:2024:i:6:p:811-:d:1354386. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.