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Predictability of Magnetic Field Reversals

Author

Listed:
  • Daniil Tolmachev

    (Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Ac. Sci., 84/32 Profsoyuznaya St., 117997 Moscow, Russia)

  • Roman Chertovskih

    (Research Center for Systems and Technologies (SYSTEC), Advanced Production and Intelligent Systems Associated Laboratory (ARISE), Faculty of Engineering, University of Porto, 4200-465 Porto, Portugal)

  • Simon Ranjith Jeyabalan

    (Research Center for Systems and Technologies (SYSTEC), Advanced Production and Intelligent Systems Associated Laboratory (ARISE), Faculty of Engineering, University of Porto, 4200-465 Porto, Portugal)

  • Vladislav Zheligovsky

    (Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Ac. Sci., 84/32 Profsoyuznaya St., 117997 Moscow, Russia)

Abstract

Geomagnetic field measurements indicate that at present we may be on the brink of the Earth’s magnetic field reversal, potentially resulting in all the accompanying negative consequences for the mankind. Mathematical modelling is necessary in order to find precursors for reversals and excursions of the magnetic field. With this purpose in mind, following the Podvigina scenario for the emergence of the reversals, we have studied convective flows not far (in the parameter space) from their onset and the onset of magnetic field generation, and found a flow demonstrating reversals of polarity of some harmonics comprising the magnetic field. We discuss a simulated regime featuring patterns of behaviour that apparently indicate future reversals of certain harmonics of the magnetic field. It remains to be seen whether reversal precursors similar to the observed ones exist and might be applicable for the much more complex geomagnetic dynamo.

Suggested Citation

  • Daniil Tolmachev & Roman Chertovskih & Simon Ranjith Jeyabalan & Vladislav Zheligovsky, 2024. "Predictability of Magnetic Field Reversals," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-20, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jmathe:v:12:y:2024:i:3:p:490-:d:1332774
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. O. M. Podvigina, 2006. "Magnetic field generation by convective flows in a plane layer," The European Physical Journal B: Condensed Matter and Complex Systems, Springer;EDP Sciences, vol. 50(4), pages 639-652, April.
    2. Jean-Pierre Valet & Laure Meynadier & Yohan Guyodo, 2005. "Geomagnetic dipole strength and reversal rate over the past two million years," Nature, Nature, vol. 435(7043), pages 802-805, June.
    3. Jean-Pierre Valet & Alexandre Fournier & Vincent Courtillot & Emilio Herrero-Bervera, 2012. "Dynamical similarity of geomagnetic field reversals," Nature, Nature, vol. 490(7418), pages 89-93, October.
    4. Gauthier Hulot & Céline Eymin & Benoît Langlais & Mioara Mandea & Nils Olsen, 2002. "Small-scale structure of the geodynamo inferred from Oersted and Magsat satellite data," Nature, Nature, vol. 416(6881), pages 620-623, April.
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