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A Double Birthday Paradox in the Study of Coincidences

Author

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  • Marco Pollanen

    (Department of Mathematics, Trent University, Peterborough, ON K9L 0G2, Canada)

Abstract

Coincidences are rare unexpected events that can fascinate, but their typical post hoc discovery and haphazard nature also have the potential to confuse and to confound correct scientific analysis. Mathematically, they can sometimes be modeled by birthday-problem collisions in datasets. In this paper, we take an expository approach to considering some of the issues involved in modeling of coincidences found from data searches and examine a double birthday problem that arises when multiple data sets are considered.

Suggested Citation

  • Marco Pollanen, 2024. "A Double Birthday Paradox in the Study of Coincidences," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 12(24), pages 1-14, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jmathe:v:12:y:2024:i:24:p:3882-:d:1540562
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nakata, Toshio, 2008. "Collision probability for an occupancy problem," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 78(13), pages 1929-1932, September.
    2. Geir Storvik & Thore Egeland, 2007. "The DNA Database Search Controversy Revisited: Bridging the Bayesian–Frequentist Gap," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 63(3), pages 922-925, September.
    3. Anders Stockmarr, 1999. "Likelihood Ratios for Evaluating DNA Evidence When the Suspect is Found Through a Database Search," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 55(3), pages 671-677, September.
    4. Wendl, Michael C., 2003. "Collision probability between sets of random variables," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 64(3), pages 249-254, September.
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