IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jmathe/v10y2022i17p3046-d896146.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

SEIARN: Intelligent Early Warning Model of Epidemic Spread Based on LSTM Trajectory Prediction

Author

Listed:
  • Liya Wang

    (College of Science, North China University of Science and Technology, Tangshan 063210, China
    Hebei Engineering Research Center for the Intelligentization of Iron Ore Optimization and Ironmaking Raw Materials Preparation Processes, North China University of Science and Technology, Tangshan 063210, China
    Hebei Key Laboratory of Data Science and Application, North China University of Science and Technology, Tangshan 063210, China
    The Key Laboratory of Engineering Computing in Tangshan City, North China University of Science and Technology, Tangshan 063210, China)

  • Yaxun Dai

    (College of Artificial Intelligence, North China University of Science and Technology, Tangshan 063210, China)

  • Renzhuo Wang

    (College of Artificial Intelligence, North China University of Science and Technology, Tangshan 063210, China)

  • Yuwen Sun

    (College of Artificial Intelligence, North China University of Science and Technology, Tangshan 063210, China)

  • Chunying Zhang

    (College of Science, North China University of Science and Technology, Tangshan 063210, China
    Hebei Engineering Research Center for the Intelligentization of Iron Ore Optimization and Ironmaking Raw Materials Preparation Processes, North China University of Science and Technology, Tangshan 063210, China
    Hebei Key Laboratory of Data Science and Application, North China University of Science and Technology, Tangshan 063210, China
    The Key Laboratory of Engineering Computing in Tangshan City, North China University of Science and Technology, Tangshan 063210, China)

  • Zhiwei Yang

    (College of Science, North China University of Science and Technology, Tangshan 063210, China)

  • Yuqing Sun

    (College of Economics, North China University of Science and Technology, Tangshan 063210, China)

Abstract

A SEIARN compartment model with the asymptomatic infection and secondary infection is proposed to predict the trend of COVID-19 more accurately. The model is extended according to the propagation characteristics of the novel coronavirus, the concepts of the asymptomatic infected compartment and secondary infection are introduced, and the contact rate parameters of the improved model are updated in real time by using the LSTM trajectory, in order to make accurate predictions. This SEIARN model first builds on the traditional SEIR compartment model, taking into account the asymptomatic infection compartment and secondary infection. Secondly, it considers the disorder of the trajectory and uses the improved LSTM model to predict the future trajectory of the current patients and cross-track with the susceptible patients to obtain the contact rate. Then, we conduct real-time updating of exposure rates in the SEIARN model and simulation of epidemic trends in Tianjin, Xi’an, and Shijiazhuang. Finally, the comparison experiments show that the SEIARN model performs better in prediction accuracy, MSE, and RMSE.

Suggested Citation

  • Liya Wang & Yaxun Dai & Renzhuo Wang & Yuwen Sun & Chunying Zhang & Zhiwei Yang & Yuqing Sun, 2022. "SEIARN: Intelligent Early Warning Model of Epidemic Spread Based on LSTM Trajectory Prediction," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(17), pages 1-23, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jmathe:v:10:y:2022:i:17:p:3046-:d:896146
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/10/17/3046/pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/10/17/3046/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cheng, Xinxin & Wang, Yi & Huang, Gang, 2021. "Global dynamics of a network-based SIQS epidemic model with nonmonotone incidence rate," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 153(P2).
    2. Liyan Zhang & Jingfeng Guo & Jiazheng Wang & Jing Wang & Shanshan Li & Chunying Zhang, 2022. "Hypergraph and Uncertain Hypergraph Representation Learning Theory and Methods," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-22, June.
    3. Manuel De la Sen & Asier Ibeas & Raul Nistal & Ya Jia, 2021. "About Partial Reachability Issues in an SEIR Epidemic Model and Related Infectious Disease Tracking in Finite Time under Vaccination and Treatment Controls," Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society, Hindawi, vol. 2021, pages 1-21, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jiraporn Lamwong & Puntani Pongsumpun & I-Ming Tang & Napasool Wongvanich, 2022. "Vaccination’s Role in Combating the Omicron Variant Outbreak in Thailand: An Optimal Control Approach," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(20), pages 1-29, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jing Wang & Jing Wang & Jingfeng Guo & Liya Wang & Chunying Zhang & Bin Liu, 2023. "Research Progress of Complex Network Modeling Methods Based on Uncertainty Theory," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-27, March.
    2. Fu, Xinjie & Wang, JinRong, 2024. "Dynamic behaviors and non-instantaneous impulsive vaccination of an SAIQR model on complex networks," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 465(C).
    3. Jingfeng Guo & Chao Zheng & Shanshan Li & Yutong Jia & Bin Liu, 2022. "BiInfGCN: Bilateral Information Augmentation of Graph Convolutional Networks for Recommendation," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(17), pages 1-16, August.
    4. Leishi Wang & Mingtao Li & Xin Pei & Juan Zhang, 2022. "Optimal Breeding Strategy for Livestock with a Dynamic Price," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-24, May.
    5. Utsumi, Shinobu & Arefin, Md. Rajib & Tatsukawa, Yuichi & Tanimoto, Jun, 2022. "How and to what extent does the anti-social behavior of violating self-quarantine measures increase the spread of disease?," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    6. Barman, Madhab & Mishra, Nachiketa, 2024. "Hopf bifurcation analysis for a delayed nonlinear-SEIR epidemic model on networks," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    7. Isra Al-Shbeil & Noureddine Djenina & Ali Jaradat & Abdallah Al-Husban & Adel Ouannas & Giuseppe Grassi, 2023. "A New COVID-19 Pandemic Model including the Compartment of Vaccinated Individuals: Global Stability of the Disease-Free Fixed Point," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-15, January.
    8. Xiao Chen & Tong Hao & Li Han & Meng Leng & Jing Chen & Jingfeng Guo, 2022. "Heterogeneous Network Embedding Based on Random Walks of Type and Inner Constraint," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(15), pages 1-20, July.
    9. Fengchun Liu & Sen Zhang & Weining Ma & Jingguo Qu, 2022. "Research on Attack Detection of Cyber Physical Systems Based on Improved Support Vector Machine," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(15), pages 1-14, August.
    10. Li, Wenjie & Zhang, Ying & Cao, Jinde & Wang, Dongshu, 2023. "Large time behavior in a reaction diffusion epidemic model with logistic source," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jmathe:v:10:y:2022:i:17:p:3046-:d:896146. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.