Long-Term Analysis and Multi-Scenarios Simulation of Ecosystem Service Values in Typical Karst River Basins

This study, guided by the concept hat “lucid waters and lush mountains are invaluable assets”, focuses on explicating the ecological vulnerability characteristics of the Nanpan and Beipan River Basins, a typical karst river basin in Guizhou Province. In this article, a value equivalent table was built to calculate the ecosystem service value (ESV) within the basin from 2000 to 2020. The patch landscape and urban simulation model (PLUS) was improved to forecast ecosystem changes under four scenarios in the future. The Getis-Ord Gi*statistic, a spatial analysis tool, was introduced to identify and interpret the spatial patterns of ESVs in the study area. The research indicates that: (1) from 2000 to 2020, the spatial pattern of ecosystem has significantly improved, and with a notable ESV increase in the Nanpan and Beipan River Basins, especially the fastest growth from 2005 to 2010. Forest and grassland ecosystems are the main contributors to ESV within the basin, and the spatial distribution of ESV shows a decreasing trend from southeast to northwest. (2) Under different scenarios, forest ecosystem still would have the highest contribution rate to update the ESV between 2010 and 2035. The ESV is the lowest under the cropland protection scenario, amounting to CNY 104.972 billion. Compared to other scenarios, the ESV is higher under the sustainable development scenario, reaching CNY 106.786 billion, and this scenario provides a more comprehensive and balanced perspective, relatively achieving a harmonious coexistence between humans and nature. (3) The hot spots of ESV are mainly concentrated in the southeast and along the riverbanks of the study area. Urban ecosystems are the cold spots of ESV, indicating that protecting the ecosystems along the riverbanks is crucial for ensuring the ecological security and sustainable development of karst mountainous river basins. In the future development of karst mountainous river basins, it is necessary to strengthen ecological restoration and governance, monitor soil erosion through remote sensing technology, optimize the layout of territorial space to implement the policy of green development, and promote the harmonious coexistence of humans and nature, ensuring the ecological security and sustainable development of the basins.