IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jlands/v14y2025i3p631-d1613864.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Park City 2035: Analysis of Policy-Driven Urban Expansion and Heat Island Effects Under Scenario Simulation

Author

Listed:
  • Rong Lin

    (Department of Landscape Architecture, School of Architecture, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu 611756, China)

  • Yujing Wu

    (College of Architecture and Urban Planning, Tongji University, Shanghai 200092, China)

  • Yuqiu Wu

    (Department of Landscape Architecture, School of Architecture, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu 611756, China)

  • Ran Wu

    (Department of Landscape Architecture, School of Architecture, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu 611756, China)

  • Jing Yang

    (Department of Landscape Architecture, School of Architecture, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu 611756, China)

Abstract

Policy guidance plays a critical role in urban expansion and development patterns, and the scientific prediction of land use change trends and the assessment of the ecological benefits of future urban development are essential for effective policy-making. Different urban development policies not only shape the evolution of urban spatial patterns but also have a profound impact on the urban heat island effect (UHI) and cooling benefits. This study explores the impact of land use changes in Tianfu New District on the UHI and conducts multi-scenario simulations combined with different policy contexts. Focusing on Tianfu New District, four scenarios were selected: the Natural Development Scenario (ND), Economic Development Scenario (ED), Sustainable Development Scenario (SD), and Cropland Protection Scenario (CLP). To assess the impact of land use changes on the heat island effect, the study also used the InVEST urban cooling model (UCM) to evaluate the heat island mitigation effects under different scenarios. The results show that (1) the land use changes in Tianfu New District primarily went through three major stages: the natural ecological stage dominated by bare land, the rapid urbanization expansion stage, and the ecological restoration stage. (2) Under different scenarios, the land use changes differed significantly in their ability to mitigate the heat island effect. Both the Economic Development Scenario (ED) and Natural Development Scenario (ND) showed a weakening of cooling effects compared to the 2024 baseline, while the Sustainable Development Scenario (SD) and Cropland Protection Scenario (CLP) enhanced the region’s cooling capacity to some extent. Rational land use planning can promote economic development, and it can also play an important role in addressing climate change and mitigating the heat island effect. Future urbanization processes should pay more attention to integrating ecological protection and cooling strategies to ensure the achievement of sustainable development goals. This study provides scientific evidence for land use planning and policy-making in Tianfu New District and similar regions.

Suggested Citation

  • Rong Lin & Yujing Wu & Yuqiu Wu & Ran Wu & Jing Yang, 2025. "Park City 2035: Analysis of Policy-Driven Urban Expansion and Heat Island Effects Under Scenario Simulation," Land, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-25, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:14:y:2025:i:3:p:631-:d:1613864
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/14/3/631/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/14/3/631/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:14:y:2025:i:3:p:631-:d:1613864. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.