Spatio-Temporal Influencing Factors of the Coupling Coordination Degree Between China’s New-Type Urbanization and Transportation Carbon Emission Efficiency

This study focuses on the coupling and coordination between China’s new-type urbanization (NU) and transportation carbon emission efficiency (CET), revealing its spatial and temporal evolution patterns and driving factors. In recent years, the rapid rise of the digital economy has profoundly reshaped traditional industrial structures. It has catalyzed new forms of production and consumption and opened up new pathways for carbon reduction. This makes synergies between NU and CET increasingly important for realizing a low-carbon transition. In addition, digital infrastructures such as 5G networks and big data platforms promote energy efficiency and facilitate industrial upgrading. It also promotes the integration of low-carbon goals into urban governance, thus strengthening the linkages between NU and CET. The study aims to provide a scientific basis for regional synergistic development and green transformation for the goal of “dual carbon”. Based on the panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2004 to 2021, the study adopts the entropy weight method and the super-efficiency SBM model to quantify NU and CET, and then analyzes their spatial and temporal interactions and spatial spillovers by combining the coupled coordination degree model and the spatial Durbin model. The following is found: (1) NU and CET show a spatial pattern of “leading in the east and lagging in the west”, and are optimized over time, but with significant regional differences; (2) the degree of coupling coordination jumps from “basic disorder” to “basic coordination”, but has not yet reached the level of advanced coordination, with significant spatial clustering characteristics (Moran’s I index between 0.244 and 0.461); (3) labor force structure, transportation and energy intensity, industrial structure and scientific and technological innovation are the core factors driving the coupled coordination, and have significant spatial spillover effects, while government intervention and per capita income have limited roles. This paper innovatively reveals the two-way synergistic mechanism of NU and CET, breaks through the traditional unidirectional research framework, and systematically analyzes the two-way feedback effect of the two. A multidimensional NU evaluation system is constructed to overcome the limitations of the previous single economic or demographic dimension, and comprehensively portray the comprehensive effect of new urbanization. A multi-dimensional coupled coordination measurement framework is proposed to quantify the synergistic evolution law of NU and CET from the perspective of spatio-temporal dynamics and spatial correlation. The spatial spillover paths of key factors are finally quantified. The findings provide decision-making references for optimizing low-carbon policies, promoting green transformation of transportation, and taking advantage of the digital economy.