Climate Change Amplifies the Effects of Vegetation Restoration on Evapotranspiration and Water Availability in the Beijing–Tianjin Sand Source Region, Northern China

Evapotranspiration (ET) and water availability (WA) are critical components of the global water cycle. Although the effects of ecological restoration on ET and WA have been widely investigated, quantifying the impacts of multiple environmental factors on plant water consumption and regional water balance in dryland areas remains challenging. In this study, we investigated the spatial and temporal trends of ET and WA and isolated the contributions of vegetation restoration and climate change to variations in ET and WA in the Beijing–Tianjin Sand Source Region (BTSSR) in Northern China from 2001 to 2021, using the remote sensing-based Priestley–Taylor-Jet Propulsion Laboratory (PT-JPL) model and scenario simulation experiments. The results indicate that the estimated ET was consistent with field observations and state-of-the-art ET products. The annual ET in the BTSSR increased significantly by 1.28 mm yr −1 from 2001 to 2021, primarily driven by vegetation restoration (0.78 mm yr −1 ) and increased radiation (0.73 mm yr −1 ). In contrast, the drier climate led to a decrease of 0.56 mm yr −1 in ET. In semiarid areas, vegetation and radiation were the dominant factors driving the variability of ET, while in arid areas, relative humidity played a more critical role. Furthermore, reduced precipitation and increased plant water consumption resulted in a decline in WA by −0.91 mm yr −1 during 2001–2021. Climate factors, rather than vegetation greening, determined the WA variations in the BTSSR, accounting for 77.6% of the total area. These findings can provide valuable insights for achieving sustainable ecological restoration and ensuring the sustainability of regional water resources in dryland China under climate change. This study also highlights the importance of simultaneously considering climate change and vegetation restoration in assessing their negative impacts on regional water availability.