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Forecasting of Wildfire Probability Occurrence: Case Study of a Mediterranean Island of Italy

Author

Listed:
  • Davide Berardi

    (Department of Chemical Engineering Materials Environment (DICMA), Sapienza-University of Rome, via Eudossiana 18, 00184 Rome, Italy)

  • Marta Galuppi

    (Department of Chemical Engineering Materials Environment (DICMA), Sapienza-University of Rome, via Eudossiana 18, 00184 Rome, Italy)

  • Angelo Libertà

    (Department of Chemical Engineering Materials Environment (DICMA), Sapienza-University of Rome, via Eudossiana 18, 00184 Rome, Italy)

  • Mara Lombardi

    (Department of Chemical Engineering Materials Environment (DICMA), Sapienza-University of Rome, via Eudossiana 18, 00184 Rome, Italy)

Abstract

The growing need to address natural and human-induced disasters while protecting territory remains a key focus for the scientific community. Effective emergency management, especially during wildfires, requires coordinated responses to safeguard lives and assets. This study develops hazard maps to aid emergency planning in Italy and estimate territorial resilience indicators. Focusing on wildfire ignition hazards in Ischia, the study uses a probabilistic model based on fifteen years of wildfire data (2009–2023). By analyzing ignition points and employing a Poisson distribution, it correlates ignition probabilities with vegetation types. The hazard maps reveal that wildfire risk is primarily influenced by the wildland–urban interface and vegetation characteristics, emphasizing the need to integrate territorial and urban factors into wildfire forecasting. The findings also suggest areas for refining the model to enhance risk mitigation strategies.

Suggested Citation

  • Davide Berardi & Marta Galuppi & Angelo Libertà & Mara Lombardi, 2025. "Forecasting of Wildfire Probability Occurrence: Case Study of a Mediterranean Island of Italy," Land, MDPI, vol. 14(2), pages 1-28, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:14:y:2025:i:2:p:277-:d:1579558
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Serena Arima & Crescenza Calculli & Alessio Pollice, 2025. "A zero‐inflated Poisson spatial model with misreporting for wildfire occurrences in southern Italian municipalities," Environmetrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(1), January.
    2. Haiganoush K. Preisler & A. A. Ager & H. K. Preisler & B. Arca & D. Spano & M. Salis, 2014. "Wildfire risk estimation in the Mediterranean area," Environmetrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(6), pages 384-396, September.
    3. Constanza Gonzalez-Mathiesen, 2024. "Challenges in Developing Wildfire Understanding from Wildfire Information through Spatial Planning Processes," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(1), pages 1-27, January.
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