Six Decades of Rural Landscape Transformation in Five Lebanese Villages

During the last six decades, Lebanon’s landscapes have undergone significant regime shifts whose causes are under-investigated. Using land cover maps from 1962 and satellite imagery from 2014 and 2023 in five randomly selected villages across Lebanon’s major agroecological zones (AEZs), we identified salient trends in the urbanization-driven transformation of land use and land cover (LULC). Household socio-economic characteristics and environmental pressures were analyzed as independent variables influencing land use decisions. Logistic regression (LR) was employed to assess the significance of these variables in shaping farmers’ choices to transition toward “perennialization”—namely fruit tree monocropping or protected agriculture. The LR results indicate that education reduced the likelihood of “perennialization” by 45% ( p < 0.001). Farm size positively influenced “perennialization” ( p < 0.01), suggesting that land availability encourages this agricultural practice. In contrast, water availability negatively affects “perennialization” ( p < 0.01), though farmers may still opt to irrigate by purchasing water during shortages. Our findings underline the complex interplay of socio-economic and environmental dynamics and historical events in shaping Lebanon’s rural landscapes and they offer insights into similar transformations across the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region.