Facilitating or Hindering? The Impact of Low-Carbon Pilot Policies on Socio-Ecological Resilience in Resource-Based Cities

Low-carbon pilot policies are essential for the green transformation of resource-based cities, helping them mitigate the “carbon curse” and the “resource curse” while promoting sustainable socio-ecological development. Focusing on a panel of 114 resource-based cities in China, spanning from 2003 to 2022, this study employs a range of methodologies, including kernel density estimation, the Difference-in-Differences Model, Spatial Difference-in-Differences, Mediation Analysis, K-means Clustering, and Dual Machine Learning to assess the consequences of low-carbon pilot policies on socio-ecological resilience. The findings indicate that the socio-ecological resilience of the study area has generally improved, though there is noticeable polarization. Low-carbon pilot policies significantly enhance the resilience of resource-based cities by 0.4%, and they exhibit a positive spatial spillover effect of 1.1%. However, the long-term effects of the policies on economic resilience were not significant, and the policies did not have a direct impact on the social resilience of the pilot cities; however, they did promote social resilience in neighboring regions. Finally, the effectiveness of low-carbon pilots varies, with more pronounced benefits in declining and mature resource cities, particularly in those with medium ecological and economic resilience, and low social resilience. Green finance, industrial transformation, and carbon emission efficiency are identified as key strategies for improving socio-ecological resilience. The above findings provide insights for policymakers seeking to foster inclusive, resilient, and sustainable urban development in China.