Spatial and Temporal Characteristics of Land Use Changes in the Yellow River Basin from 1990 to 2021 and Future Predictions

Studying spatial and temporal characteristics of land use changes and the driving factors in the Yellow River Basin as well as simulating and predicting future land use is crucial for resource management, ecological protection, and regional sustainable development in the Yellow River Basin. Based on the China Land Cover Dataset (CLCD) of the Yellow River Basin from 1990 to 2021, this study employs various methods such as the Mann–Kendall test and sliding t -test, land use dynamics, the land use transfer matrix, the standard deviation ellipse, the center of gravity migration model, and a geographic detector to explore the spatial and temporal characteristics of land use changes and driving forces in the Yellow River Basin over the past 30 years. Additionally, the study predicts land use types in the study area for the year of 2030 by using the Future Land Use Simulation (FLUS) model. The results show the following: (1) From 1990 to 2021, the area of forest, grassland, water, and impervious surfaces increased significantly, while the area of cropland, shrub, barren land, and wetlands decreased significantly. The most actively changing land use types are cropland, grassland, barren land, and impervious surfaces. (2) The center of gravity for shrub and impervious surfaces shifted westward, while wetlands showed a trend of obvious concentrated distribution, and the remaining land use types exhibited stable directional distributions. (3) Economic factors had a stronger driving effect on land use changes than topographic and climatic factors. The land use changes in the Yellow River Basin are influenced by the coordinated driving forces of multiple factors. (4) In 2030, the main land use types in the Yellow River Basin are still expected to be cropland, grassland, and forest. However, there will be a significant expansion of impervious surfaces and forest land, with substantial encroachment on cropland and grassland.