Influence of Cumulative Geotechnical Deterioration on Mass Movement at a Medium-Scale Regional Analysis (Cortinas Sector, Toledo, Colombia)

Landslides in Colombia represent a serious threat to the safety of local communities and the surrounding infrastructure, especially in the mountain range zone. These events occur due to the variation and correlation of endogenous conditions existing in each area, such as geology, geomorphology and coverage, which are triggered by rainfall, seismic events or anthropic activities. This article aims to analyze the geoenvironmental conditions between 2016 and 2021 in the sector known as Cortinas (Toledo, Colombia), applying, for this purpose, the innovative concept of “accumulated geotechnical deterioration” in order to explain the evolution of susceptibility over time from the perspective of prediction, which under traditional methodologies is not properly considered, since unlike what has been thought, the conditioning factors do change in the short and medium term, especially in tropical areas. As a result of this part of the research, the hypothesis was validated that it is necessary for the terrain to be under certain specific conditions for an instability event to occur, which does not depend only on certain critical thresholds of rainfall and earthquakes.