Prospects for Drought Detection and Monitoring Using Long-Term Vegetation Indices Series from Satellite Data in Kazakhstan

The rainfed cereal growing regions of Northern Kazakhstan experience significant yield fluctuations due to dependence on weather conditions. Early detection and monitoring of droughts is crucial for effective mitigation strategies in this region. This study emphasises the following objectives: (1) description of the current vegetation condition with a possible separation of short-term weather effects and (2) analysing trends of changes with their directionality and quantification. Terra MODIS satellite images from 2000 to 2023 are used. Differential indices—Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Vegetation Condition Index (VCI)—are used to determine the characteristics of each current season. A key component is the comparison of the current NDVI values with historical maximum, minimum, and average values to identify early indicators of drought. NDVI deviations from multiyear norms and VCI values below 0.3 visually reflect changing vegetation conditions influenced by seasonal weather patterns. The results show that the algorithm effectively detects early signs of drought through observed deviations in NDVI values, showing a trend towards increasing drought frequency and intensity in Northern Kazakhstan. The algorithm was particularly effective in detecting severe drought seasons in advance, as was the case in June 2010 and May 2012, thus supporting early recognition of drought onset. The Integrated Vegetation Index (IVI) and Integrated Vegetation Condition Index (IVCI) time series are used for integrated multiyear assessments, in analysing temporal changes in vegetation cover, determining trends in these changes, and ranking the weather conditions of each growing season in the multiyear series. Areas with high probability of drought based on low IVCI values are mapped. The present study emphasises the value of remote sensing as a tool for drought monitoring, offering timely and spatially detailed information on vulnerable areas. This approach provides critical information for agricultural planning, environmental management and policy making, especially in arid and semi-arid regions. The study emphasises the importance of multiyear data series for accurate drought forecasting and suggests that this methodology can be adapted to other drought-sensitive regions. Emphasising the socio-economic benefits, this study suggests that the early detection of drought using satellite data can reduce material losses and facilitate targeted responses.