Disconnected Flows, Eroded Landscapes: A Case Study of Human Impact on a Judean Desert Water System

The Bir el-Umdan cistern, a prominent archaeological site in the Judean Desert, is one of the largest and best preserved water systems in the region. Hewn in chalk, the cistern area measures 114 m 2 and has a ~700 m 3 volume. Two massive columns, each with a base diameter of 2.5 m, support the ceiling within the cistern’s interior. This impressive structure is estimated to date back to the Hellenistic to Late Antiquity periods based on its architectural characteristics. Historical records indicate that the cistern was documented on 19th-century maps but disappeared from the 1935 and 1943 British Mandate maps. Its reappearance on the 1967 Survey of Israel map includes an upstream road disconnecting the cistern from its natural drainage basin. Despite its renovation in the 2010s, the cistern’s water supply remains limited due to its reduced catchment area, which now constitutes only 25% of its original size. Runoff coefficients calculated for the cistern’s drainage basin are relatively low (1.4% to 8.1%) compared to other desert regions. We analyzed the 21st-century runoff coefficient and recurrence interval over the original drainage basin (0.12 km 2 ) to estimate the water volumes in antiquity. Our analysis suggests that using an 8.1% runoff coefficient, the estimated water volume is 806 m 3 , implying a cistern overflow every 6–7 years. A more conservative estimate using a 5% runoff coefficient yields a water volume of 500 m 3 and a 15-year recurrence interval. Sediment analysis reveals that silt particles dominate the sediment accumulated in the cistern and its upstream sedimentation basins. The consistent grain size distribution throughout the system indicates rapid water flow during flood events. Reconstructing the sedimentation history is challenging due to potential maintenance and possible dredging and cleaning operations.