Understanding Arable Land Change Patterns and Driving Forces in Major Grain-Producing Areas: A Case Study of Sichuan Province Using the PLUS Model

The purpose of this study is to reveal the characteristics and driving factors of cropland change in Sichuan Province. This study summarizes the current status of coordination among croplands, ecosystem protection, and urban expansion in the region and provides suggestions for the rational use and conservation of arable land resources. The research methods include ArcGis spatial analysis and the PLUS model. The results show that: (1) The cropland area in Sichuan Province has been continuously decreasing over the past 21 years, but arable land protection policies have effectively mitigated this situation. (2) With the exception of Chengdu, the reduction of arable land in each city in Sichuan province has gradually balanced out, safeguarding the development of major and lagging cities. (3) “Dual suitability” refers to the conflict between urban development and planting. Moreover, due to the Matthew effect, urban development further promoted the expansion of construction lands, leaving croplands in a weak position in the competition with construction lands. (4) Sichuan Province showed the characteristics of alternating leadership between urbanization of land and population urbanization during the process of urban development occupying cropland. In conclusion, the decreasing trend of croplands in Sichuan Province has gradually improved, and the coordination between cropland, ecosystem, and urban space has been achieved.