An Ecoregional Conservation Assessment for Forests and Woodlands of the Mogollon Highlands Ecoregion, Northcentral Arizona and Southwestern New Mexico, USA

The Mogollon Highlands, Arizona/New Mexico, USA, spans a large biogeographical region of 11 biotic communities, 63 land cover types, and 7 ecoregions. This 11.3 M ha region has high levels of beta diversity across topo-edaphic gradients that span deserts to mountain tops. The main stressors affecting the region’s forests and woodlands include climate change, livestock grazing, and frequent mechanical removals of large amounts of forest biomass for fire concerns. We present an ecoregion conservation assessment for robust conservation area design that factors in appropriate wildfire response to protect communities from increasing threats of climate-induced wildfires spreading into urban areas. We focused mainly on maintaining connectivity for endangered focal species (grizzly bear ( Ursus arctos horribilis ) and Mexican wolf ( Canis lupus baileyi )) along with protecting mature and old-growth (MOG) forests, Piñon ( Pinus spp.)–Juniper ( Juniperus spp.) Woodlands, and riparian areas. Over half the region is managed by federal agencies where new protected areas can be integrated with tribal co-management and prescribed burning, defensible space, and home hardening to protect communities from the growing threat of climate-induced wildfires. However, just 9% of the study area is currently protected, and even with the inclusion of proposed protected areas, only 24% would be protected, which is below 30 × 30 targets. The potential grizzly bear habitat, wolf habitat connectivity, and MOG forests (1.6 M ha (14.2%) of the study area; 18% protected) are concentrated mainly in the central and eastern portions of the MHE. There were 824 fires (2 to 228,065 ha) from 1984–2021, with 24% overlapping the wildland–urban interface. Regional temperatures have increased by 1.5 °C, with a 16% reduction in precipitation and stream flow since 1970 that under worst-case emission scenarios may increase temperatures another 3 to 8 °C by the century’s end. The unique biodiversity of the MHE can be better maintained in a rapidly changing climate via at least a three-fold increase in protected areas, co-management of focal species with tribes, and strategic use of fuel treatments nearest communities.