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Impact of Landscape Management Scenarios on Ecosystem Service Values in Central Ethiopia

Author

Listed:
  • Abera Assefa Biratu

    (Africa Centre of Excellence for Climate Smart Agriculture and Biodiversity Conservation, Haramaya University, Dire Dawa P.O. Box 138, Ethiopia
    Melkassa Agricultural Research Center, Ethiopian Institute of Agricultural Research, Adama P.O. Box 436, Ethiopia)

  • Bobe Bedadi

    (Africa Centre of Excellence for Climate Smart Agriculture and Biodiversity Conservation, Haramaya University, Dire Dawa P.O. Box 138, Ethiopia)

  • Solomon Gebreyohannis Gebrehiwot

    (Water and Land Resource Center, Ethiopian Institute of Water Resource, Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa P.O. Box 3880, Ethiopia)

  • Assefa M. Melesse

    (Department of Earth and Environment, Institute of Environment, Florida International University, Miami, FL 33199, USA)

  • Tilahun Hordofa Nebi

    (Melkassa Agricultural Research Center, Ethiopian Institute of Agricultural Research, Adama P.O. Box 436, Ethiopia)

  • Wuletawu Abera

    (International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT), Addis Ababa P.O. Box 5689, Ethiopia)

  • Lulseged Tamene

    (International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT), Addis Ababa P.O. Box 5689, Ethiopia)

  • Anthony Egeru

    (Department of Environmental Management, Makerere University, Kampala P.O. Box 7062, Uganda
    Regional Universities Forum for Capacity Building in Agriculture (RUFORUM), Kampala P.O. Box 16811, Uganda)

Abstract

This study aimed at modeling scenarios of future land use and land cover (LULC) change and estimating ecosystem service (ES) values for the year 2051 compared to 2021 in Central Ethiopia. The future LULC changes for the year 2051 were simulated for four scenarios, namely Business-as-Usual (BAU), Rapid Agricultural Expansion (RAE), Ecosystems Protection and Agricultural Development (EPAD) and Landscape Ecosystems Restoration and Conservation (LERC). The four LULC change scenarios were simulated based on anticipated assumptions that were derived from existing spatial policies, a consultation workshop report on scenarios of agricultural development in Ethiopia, suitability analysis, population growth analysis and expert knowledge of the study area characteristics. We used a Multi-Layer Perceptron–Artificial Neuron Network (MLP–ANN) model-based projected LULC for the BAU scenario and the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model to generate RAE, EPAD and LERC scenarios in the study landscape. The benefit transfer method was used to estimate the total ES values and for trade-off analysis. The result showed that LULC changes in the study area varied across simulated scenarios compared to the base year 2021. Under the BAU and RAE scenarios, cultivated land increased by 146,548 ha (22%) and 193,965 ha (29%), whereas forest, water body, wetland and shrub-bush land were reduced. However, forest cover increased by 31,725 ha and 100,080 ha but bare land was reduced by 8466 ha (21%) and 10,379 ha (25%) under the EPAD and LERC scenarios. The forest cover annual rate of change was 3.2% and 6% under the EPAD and LERC scenarios. As a result, the total ES value increased by USD 24.5 and 78.5 million under the EPAD and LERC scenarios for the year 2051, whereas the total ES value was reduced under the BAU and RAE scenarios by USD 27.1 and 73.2 million. The trade-offs among ecosystem services were significantly synergized under the LERC scenario compared to RAE. Therefore, EPAD and LERC could be used as a reference for sustainable landscape planning and management. Landscape ecosystems restoration integrated with a sustainable agricultural intensification approach would enable us to ensure the sustainability of both agricultural production and ecosystem service synergies without negatively affecting the natural environment.

Suggested Citation

  • Abera Assefa Biratu & Bobe Bedadi & Solomon Gebreyohannis Gebrehiwot & Assefa M. Melesse & Tilahun Hordofa Nebi & Wuletawu Abera & Lulseged Tamene & Anthony Egeru, 2022. "Impact of Landscape Management Scenarios on Ecosystem Service Values in Central Ethiopia," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-16, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:11:y:2022:i:8:p:1266-:d:882477
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    5. Selamawit Haftu Gebresellase & Zhiyong Wu & Huating Xu & Wada Idris Muhammad, 2023. "Scenario-Based LULC Dynamics Projection Using the CA–Markov Model on Upper Awash Basin (UAB), Ethiopia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(2), pages 1-27, January.

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