IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jlands/v11y2022i8p1266-d882477.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Impact of Landscape Management Scenarios on Ecosystem Service Values in Central Ethiopia

Author

Listed:
  • Abera Assefa Biratu

    (Africa Centre of Excellence for Climate Smart Agriculture and Biodiversity Conservation, Haramaya University, Dire Dawa P.O. Box 138, Ethiopia
    Melkassa Agricultural Research Center, Ethiopian Institute of Agricultural Research, Adama P.O. Box 436, Ethiopia)

  • Bobe Bedadi

    (Africa Centre of Excellence for Climate Smart Agriculture and Biodiversity Conservation, Haramaya University, Dire Dawa P.O. Box 138, Ethiopia)

  • Solomon Gebreyohannis Gebrehiwot

    (Water and Land Resource Center, Ethiopian Institute of Water Resource, Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa P.O. Box 3880, Ethiopia)

  • Assefa M. Melesse

    (Department of Earth and Environment, Institute of Environment, Florida International University, Miami, FL 33199, USA)

  • Tilahun Hordofa Nebi

    (Melkassa Agricultural Research Center, Ethiopian Institute of Agricultural Research, Adama P.O. Box 436, Ethiopia)

  • Wuletawu Abera

    (International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT), Addis Ababa P.O. Box 5689, Ethiopia)

  • Lulseged Tamene

    (International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT), Addis Ababa P.O. Box 5689, Ethiopia)

  • Anthony Egeru

    (Department of Environmental Management, Makerere University, Kampala P.O. Box 7062, Uganda
    Regional Universities Forum for Capacity Building in Agriculture (RUFORUM), Kampala P.O. Box 16811, Uganda)

Abstract

This study aimed at modeling scenarios of future land use and land cover (LULC) change and estimating ecosystem service (ES) values for the year 2051 compared to 2021 in Central Ethiopia. The future LULC changes for the year 2051 were simulated for four scenarios, namely Business-as-Usual (BAU), Rapid Agricultural Expansion (RAE), Ecosystems Protection and Agricultural Development (EPAD) and Landscape Ecosystems Restoration and Conservation (LERC). The four LULC change scenarios were simulated based on anticipated assumptions that were derived from existing spatial policies, a consultation workshop report on scenarios of agricultural development in Ethiopia, suitability analysis, population growth analysis and expert knowledge of the study area characteristics. We used a Multi-Layer Perceptron–Artificial Neuron Network (MLP–ANN) model-based projected LULC for the BAU scenario and the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model to generate RAE, EPAD and LERC scenarios in the study landscape. The benefit transfer method was used to estimate the total ES values and for trade-off analysis. The result showed that LULC changes in the study area varied across simulated scenarios compared to the base year 2021. Under the BAU and RAE scenarios, cultivated land increased by 146,548 ha (22%) and 193,965 ha (29%), whereas forest, water body, wetland and shrub-bush land were reduced. However, forest cover increased by 31,725 ha and 100,080 ha but bare land was reduced by 8466 ha (21%) and 10,379 ha (25%) under the EPAD and LERC scenarios. The forest cover annual rate of change was 3.2% and 6% under the EPAD and LERC scenarios. As a result, the total ES value increased by USD 24.5 and 78.5 million under the EPAD and LERC scenarios for the year 2051, whereas the total ES value was reduced under the BAU and RAE scenarios by USD 27.1 and 73.2 million. The trade-offs among ecosystem services were significantly synergized under the LERC scenario compared to RAE. Therefore, EPAD and LERC could be used as a reference for sustainable landscape planning and management. Landscape ecosystems restoration integrated with a sustainable agricultural intensification approach would enable us to ensure the sustainability of both agricultural production and ecosystem service synergies without negatively affecting the natural environment.

Suggested Citation

  • Abera Assefa Biratu & Bobe Bedadi & Solomon Gebreyohannis Gebrehiwot & Assefa M. Melesse & Tilahun Hordofa Nebi & Wuletawu Abera & Lulseged Tamene & Anthony Egeru, 2022. "Impact of Landscape Management Scenarios on Ecosystem Service Values in Central Ethiopia," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-16, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:11:y:2022:i:8:p:1266-:d:882477
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/11/8/1266/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/11/8/1266/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Habtamu Temesgen & Wei Wu & Xiaoping Shi & Eshetu Yirsaw & Belewu Bekele & Mengistie Kindu, 2018. "Variation in Ecosystem Service Values in an Agroforestry Dominated Landscape in Ethiopia: Implications for Land Use and Conservation Policy," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-20, April.
    2. Costanza, Robert, 1998. "The value of ecosystem services," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 1-2, April.
    3. Abera, Wuletawu & Tamene, Lulseged & Kassawmar, Tibebu & Mulatu, Kalkidan & Kassa, Habtemariam & Verchot, Louis & Quintero, Marcela, 2021. "Impacts of land use and land cover dynamics on ecosystem services in the Yayo coffee forest biosphere reserve, southwestern Ethiopia," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    4. Sara Prybutok & Galen Newman & Kayode Atoba & Garett Sansom & Zhihan Tao, 2021. "Combining Co$ting Nature and Suitability Modeling to Identify High Flood Risk Areas in Need of Nature-Based Services," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-12, August.
    5. Costanza, Robert & d'Arge, Ralph & de Groot, Rudolf & Farber, Stephen & Grasso, Monica & Hannon, Bruce & Limburg, Karin & Naeem, Shahid & O'Neill, Robert V. & Paruelo, Jose, 1998. "The value of the world's ecosystem services and natural capital," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 3-15, April.
    6. Abera Assefa Biratu & Bobe Bedadi & Solomon Gebreyohannis Gebrehiwot & Assefa M. Melesse & Tilahun Hordofa Nebi & Wuletawu Abera & Lulseged Tamene & Anthony Egeru, 2022. "Ecosystem Service Valuation along Landscape Transformation in Central Ethiopia," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-18, March.
    7. Narita, Daiju & Lemenih, Mulugeta & Shimoda, Yukimi & Ayana, Alemayehu N., 2018. "Economic Accounting of Ethiopian Forests: A Natural Capital Approach," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 97, pages 189-200.
    8. Boumans, Roelof & Roman, Joe & Altman, Irit & Kaufman, Les, 2015. "The Multiscale Integrated Model of Ecosystem Services (MIMES): Simulating the interactions of coupled human and natural systems," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 12(C), pages 30-41.
    9. Narita, Daiju & Lemenih, Mulugeta & Shimoda, Yukimi & Ayana, Alemayehu N., 2018. "Economic accounting of ethiopian forests: A natural capital approach," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 189-200.
    10. Tolessa, Terefe & Senbeta, Feyera & Kidane, Moges, 2017. "The impact of land use/land cover change on ecosystem services in the central highlands of Ethiopia," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 47-54.
    11. Hailu, Alemenesh & Mammo, Siraj & Kidane, Moges, 2020. "Dynamics of land use, land cover change trend and its drivers in Jimma Geneti District, Western Ethiopia," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    12. Awulachew, Seleshi Bekele, 2007. "Water resources and irrigation development in Ethiopia," IWMI Working Papers H040631, International Water Management Institute.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Yizhou Wu & Zichun Huang & Dan Han & Xiaoli Qiu & Yaxin Pan, 2023. "Evolution of Urban Ecosystem Service Value and a Scenario Analysis Based on Land Utilization Changes: A Case Study of Hangzhou, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(10), pages 1-17, May.
    2. Selamawit Haftu Gebresellase & Zhiyong Wu & Huating Xu & Wada Idris Muhammad, 2023. "Scenario-Based LULC Dynamics Projection Using the CA–Markov Model on Upper Awash Basin (UAB), Ethiopia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(2), pages 1-27, January.
    3. Carlos Rosero & Xosé Otero & Cinthya Bravo & Catherine Frey, 2023. "Multitemporal Incidence of Landscape Fragmentation in a Protected Area of Central Andean Ecuador," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-21, February.
    4. Ephias Mugari & Hillary Masundire, 2022. "Consistent Changes in Land-Use/Land-Cover in Semi-Arid Areas: Implications on Ecosystem Service Delivery and Adaptation in the Limpopo Basin, Botswana," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-20, November.
    5. Hualin Xie & Zhe Li & Yu Xu, 2022. "Study on the Coupling and Coordination Relationship between Gross Ecosystem Product (GEP) and Regional Economic System: A Case Study of Jiangxi Province," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(9), pages 1-20, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Abera Assefa Biratu & Bobe Bedadi & Solomon Gebreyohannis Gebrehiwot & Assefa M. Melesse & Tilahun Hordofa Nebi & Wuletawu Abera & Lulseged Tamene & Anthony Egeru, 2022. "Ecosystem Service Valuation along Landscape Transformation in Central Ethiopia," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-18, March.
    2. Muluberhan Biedemariam & Emiru Birhane & Biadgilgn Demissie & Tewodros Tadesse & Girmay Gebresamuel & Solomon Habtu, 2022. "Ecosystem Service Values as Related to Land Use and Land Cover Changes in Ethiopia: A Review," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-21, December.
    3. Motuma Shiferaw Regasa & Michael Nones, 2022. "Past and Future Land Use/Land Cover Changes in the Ethiopian Fincha Sub-Basin," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-20, August.
    4. Yajing Shao & Xuefeng Yuan & Chaoqun Ma & Ruifang Ma & Zhaoxia Ren, 2020. "Quantifying the Spatial Association between Land Use Change and Ecosystem Services Value: A Case Study in Xi’an, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(11), pages 1-20, May.
    5. Nunes, P.A.L.D. & Nijkamp, P., 2011. "Biodiversity: Economic perspectives," Serie Research Memoranda 0002, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
    6. Desbureaux, Sébastien & Brimont, Laura, 2015. "Between economic loss and social identity: The multi-dimensional cost of avoiding deforestation in Eastern Madagascar," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 10-20.
    7. Shrestha, Ram K. & Seidl, Andrew F. & Moraes, Andre S., 2002. "Value of recreational fishing in the Brazilian Pantanal: a travel cost analysis using count data models," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1-2), pages 289-299, August.
    8. Cong Xu & Shixin Wang & Yi Zhou & Litao Wang & Wenliang Liu, 2016. "A Comprehensive Quantitative Evaluation of New Sustainable Urbanization Level in 20 Chinese Urban Agglomerations," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(2), pages 1-19, January.
    9. Fan, Fan & Henriksen, Christian Bugge & Porter, John, 2016. "Valuation of ecosystem services in organic cereal crop production systems with different management practices in relation to organic matter input," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 22(PA), pages 117-127.
    10. Vorstius, Anne Carolin & Spray, Christopher J., 2015. "A comparison of ecosystem services mapping tools for their potential to support planning and decision-making on a local scale," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 15(C), pages 75-83.
    11. Xichen Ge & Liang Sun & Jiongzhen Chen & Shuangrong Cai, 2022. "Land Utilization, Landscape Pattern, and Ecological Efficiency: An Empirical Analysis of Discrimination and Overlap from Suining, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(14), pages 1-19, July.
    12. Tadesse Tolera, 2022. "The economic valuation of Gedo Natural Forest conservation benefits, Ethiopia," Journal of Innovation and Entrepreneurship, Springer, vol. 11(1), pages 1-13, December.
    13. Kumar, Sanjay, 2002. "Does "Participation" in Common Pool Resource Management Help the Poor? A Social Cost-Benefit Analysis of Joint Forest Management in Jharkhand, India," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 763-782, May.
    14. Henghui Xi & Wanglai Cui & Li Cai & Mengyuan Chen & Chenglei Xu, 2021. "Evaluation and Prediction of Ecosystem Service Value in the Zhoushan Islands Based on LUCC," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-13, February.
    15. John Kurien, 2004. "The Blessing of the Commons: Small Scale Fisheries, Community Property Rights, and Coastal Natural Assets," Working Papers wp72, Political Economy Research Institute, University of Massachusetts at Amherst.
    16. Mariel Aguilar-Støen, 2015. "Exploring participation in new forms of environmental governance: a case study of payments for environmental services in Nicaragua," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 17(4), pages 941-958, August.
    17. Zhongmin, Xu & Guodong, Cheng & Zhiqiang, Zhang & Zhiyong, Su & Loomis, John, 2003. "Applying contingent valuation in China to measure the total economic value of restoring ecosystem services in Ejina region," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2-3), pages 345-358, March.
    18. Yingen Hu & Ye Zhang & Xinli Ke, 2018. "Dynamics of Tradeoffs between Economic Benefits and Ecosystem Services due to Urban Expansion," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-13, July.
    19. Yukun Cao & Xianqiao Huang & Xiangyue Liu & Bo Cao, 2023. "Spatio-Temporal Evolution Characteristics, Development Patterns, and Ecological Effects of “Production-Living-Ecological Space” at the City Level in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(2), pages 1-21, January.
    20. Mekuria, Wolde & Gedle, Assefa & Tesfaye, Yitna & Phimister, Euan, 2023. "Implications of changes in land use for ecosystem service values of two highly eroded watersheds in Lake Abaya Chamo sub-basin, Ethiopia," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:11:y:2022:i:8:p:1266-:d:882477. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.