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Research on the Dynamic Interrelationship between Economic Policy Uncertainty and Stock Market Returns

Author

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  • Mingguo Zhao

    (Department of International Business and Trade, Kyung Hee University, Seoul 02447, Republic of Korea)

  • Hail Park

    (Department of International Business and Trade, Kyung Hee University, Seoul 02447, Republic of Korea)

Abstract

This paper employs the Panel Vector Autoregression (PVAR) method to examine the dynamic interrelationship between Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) and stock market returns. The existing literature has not reached a consensus on the relationship between EPU and stock market returns, and there is a lack of comparative analysis of domestic and foreign EPU. Therefore, this paper is the first to incorporate domestic and foreign EPU, stock market returns, and output into a unified framework, considering the dual impact of domestic and foreign EPU shocks. Additionally, the generalizability of the results is ensured by including a large sample of nine emerging and eleven advanced economies. The main findings are as follows: First, a positive shock to foreign EPU leads to a decline in stock market returns and is stronger than the impact of domestic EPU. Second, a positive shock to stock market returns reduces both domestic and foreign EPU. Third, a rise in stock market returns promotes domestic output growth, while increases in domestic and foreign EPU suppress domestic output growth. Finally, the United States is a net exporter of EPU rather than a net importer.

Suggested Citation

  • Mingguo Zhao & Hail Park, 2024. "Research on the Dynamic Interrelationship between Economic Policy Uncertainty and Stock Market Returns," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 17(8), pages 1-17, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jjrfmx:v:17:y:2024:i:8:p:347-:d:1454288
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    4. Tsung-Pao Wu & Shu-Bing Liu & Shun-Jen Hsueh, 2016. "The Causal Relationship between Economic Policy Uncertainty and Stock Market: A Panel Data Analysis," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(1), pages 109-122, March.
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