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Forecasting Credit Cycles: The Case of the Leveraged Finance Market in 2024 and Outlook

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  • Edward I. Altman

    (Stern School of Business, New York University, Kaufman Management Center, New York, NY 10012, USA)

Abstract

There are certain times in our economic and financial environments when it makes sense to assess carefully and dispassionately where we are in the credit cycle and how this cycle relates to the business cycle. Now, mid-2024, is one of those times, as the economic uncertainties are at substantial levels. This note reflects my long history of studying credit cycles dating back to the early 1970s. My current assessment is that the Benign Credit Cycle we have enjoyed since 2010, with the exception of a few months in 2016 and early 2020, ended in 2023. We recently reached an inflection point for an average credit risk scenario. This assessment is based on an analysis of a number of historical indicators over the last 50 years. This conclusion is tempered by the possibility that the U.S. credit picture will continue its heightened risk trend toward a Stressed Scenario by the end of 2024, and combined with a “hard-landing” economic recession, we could witness another financial-credit crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Edward I. Altman, 2024. "Forecasting Credit Cycles: The Case of the Leveraged Finance Market in 2024 and Outlook," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 17(8), pages 1-10, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jjrfmx:v:17:y:2024:i:8:p:339-:d:1450196
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "The Aftermath of Financial Crises," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(2), pages 466-472, May.
    2. David Aikman & Andrew G. Haldane & Benjamin D. Nelson, 2015. "Curbing the Credit Cycle," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 125(585), pages 1072-1109, June.
    3. Vítor Castro & Rodrigo Martins, 2019. "Political and Institutional Determinants of Credit Booms," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 81(5), pages 1144-1178, October.
    4. Nina Boyarchenko & Leonardo Elias, 2024. "The Changing Landscape of Corporate Credit," Liberty Street Economics 20240521, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    5. Matthew Baron & Wei Xiong, 2017. "Credit Expansion and Neglected Crash Risk," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 132(2), pages 713-764.
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