IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jjrfmx/v17y2024i12p530-d1527108.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Evaluation of the Resilience of Real Estate and Property Stocks to Inflation and Interest Rate Uncertainty: Implementation of Two Asset Pricing Models

Author

Listed:
  • Nurdina Nurdina

    (Department of Accounting, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Brawijaya, Malang 65145, Indonesia
    Department of Accounting, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas PGRI Adi Buana, Surabaya 60234, Indonesia)

  • Nurkholis Nurkholis

    (Department of Accounting, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Brawijaya, Malang 65145, Indonesia)

  • Noval Adib

    (Department of Accounting, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Brawijaya, Malang 65145, Indonesia)

  • Sari Atmini

    (Department of Accounting, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Brawijaya, Malang 65145, Indonesia)

Abstract

Property stocks are an attractive alternative investment for investors who want passive income. Investors’ decisions focus not only on maximizing returns but also on reducing risk. This study examines the extent to which macroeconomic factors affect stock performance by comparing the effectiveness of the Fama–French five-factor model (5FF) and Fama–French seven-factor model (7FF) in estimating returns. This study also verifies Fisher’s theory in the context of property and real estate stocks. The research data used are property and real estate stocks in the Indonesian capital market. The data are processed using the OLS estimation method, and Akaike’s Information Criterion (AIC) is used to choose the optimal model. The results show that property and real estate stocks in Indonesia with negative profitability at all quantiles can hedge inflation and interest rates. However, the interest rates are not the only factor affecting the market risk. The 7FF model is better at explaining the variability of stock portfolio returns. This research makes an essential contribution to the financial literature in Indonesia, particularly in the context of portfolio management in the property and real estate sector.

Suggested Citation

  • Nurdina Nurdina & Nurkholis Nurkholis & Noval Adib & Sari Atmini, 2024. "Evaluation of the Resilience of Real Estate and Property Stocks to Inflation and Interest Rate Uncertainty: Implementation of Two Asset Pricing Models," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 17(12), pages 1-18, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jjrfmx:v:17:y:2024:i:12:p:530-:d:1527108
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1911-8074/17/12/530/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1911-8074/17/12/530/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Irwan Adi Ekaputra & Bambang Sutrisno, 2020. "Empirical tests of the Fama-French five-factor model in Indonesia and Singapore," Afro-Asian Journal of Finance and Accounting, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 10(1), pages 85-111.
    2. Solnik, Bruno, 1983. "The Relation between Stock Prices and Inflationary Expectations: The International Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 38(1), pages 35-48, March.
    3. Guo, Bin & Zhang, Wei & Zhang, Yongjie & Zhang, Han, 2017. "The five-factor asset pricing model tests for the Chinese stock market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 84-106.
    4. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 2015. "A five-factor asset pricing model," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(1), pages 1-22.
    5. Chung-Yim Yiu & Chuyi Xiong & Ka-Shing Cheung, 2022. "An Extended Fama-French Multi-Factor Model in Direct Real Estate Investing," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-14, September.
    6. Gultekin, N Bulent, 1983. "Stock Market Returns and Inflation: Evidence from Other Countries," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 38(1), pages 49-65, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Harjoat S. Bhamra & Christian Dorion & Alexandre Jeanneret & Michael Weber, 2018. "Low Inflation: High Default Risk AND High Equity Valuations," NBER Working Papers 25317, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Sellin, Peter, 1998. "Monetary Policy and the Stock Market: Theory and Empirical Evidence," Working Paper Series 72, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    3. Bampinas, Georgios & Panagiotidis, Theodore, 2016. "Hedging inflation with individual US stocks: A long-run portfolio analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 374-392.
    4. Yu Wang & Haicheng Shu, 2019. "Evaluating the Performance of Factor Pricing Models for Different Stock Market Trends: Evidence from China," Working Papers 2019-10-10, Wang Yanan Institute for Studies in Economics (WISE), Xiamen University.
    5. Osamah M. Al-Khazali, 2003. "Stock Prices, Inflation, and Output: Evidence from the Emerging Markets," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 2(3), pages 287-314, September.
    6. John Ammer, 1994. "Inflation, inflation risk, and stock returns," International Finance Discussion Papers 464, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    7. T.J. Flavin & M.R. Wickens, 2003. "Macroeconomic influences on optimal asset allocation," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 12(2), pages 207-231.
    8. Jieting Chen & Yuichiro Kawaguchi, 2018. "Multi-Factor Asset-Pricing Models under Markov Regime Switches: Evidence from the Chinese Stock Market," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 6(2), pages 1-19, May.
    9. Muhammad Usman Arshad, 2021. "Forecasted E/P Ratio and ROE: Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE), China," SAGE Open, , vol. 11(2), pages 21582440211, June.
    10. Jansen, Maarten & Swinkels, Laurens & Zhou, Weili, 2021. "Anomalies in the China A-share market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    11. Samih Antoine Azar, 2013. "The Spurious Relation between Inflation Uncertainty and Stock Returns: Evidence from the U.S," Review of Economics & Finance, Better Advances Press, Canada, vol. 3, pages 99-109, November.
    12. Huang, Tzu-Lun, 2018. "The puzzling media effect in the Chinese stock market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 129-146.
    13. Hanauer, Matthias X. & Jansen, Maarten & Swinkels, Laurens & Zhou, Weili, 2024. "Factor models for Chinese A-shares," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    14. Yu, Lu & Li, Yanglin, 2023. "Testing factor models when asset bubbles occur: A time-varying perspective," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    15. Dalina Amonhaemanon & Jan Annaert & Marc J.K. De Ceuster & Hau Le Long, 2014. "The Fisher Hypothesis and Investment Assets: The Vietnamese and Thai Case," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 5(4), pages 180-195, October.
    16. Solnik, Bruno & Solnik, Vincent, 1997. "A multi-country test of the Fisher model for stock returns," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 7(4), pages 289-301, December.
    17. Xiong, Haifang & Yang, Gaofei & Wang, Zhiqiang, 2022. "Factor portfolio and target volatility management: An analysis of portfolio performance in the U.S. and China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 493-517.
    18. Peter Sellin, 2001. "Monetary Policy and the Stock Market: Theory and Empirical Evidence," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(4), pages 491-541, September.
    19. Dong, Dayong & Wu, Keke & Fang, Jianchun & Gozgor, Giray & Yan, Cheng, 2022. "Investor attention factors and stock returns: Evidence from China," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    20. YuZhi Chen & Yi Fang & XinYue Li & Jian Wei, 2023. "A factor pricing model based on double moving average strategy," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 10(1), pages 1-13, December.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jjrfmx:v:17:y:2024:i:12:p:530-:d:1527108. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.