IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jjrfmx/v15y2022i5p200-d802181.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Simulation-Based Business Valuation: Methodical Implementation in the Valuation Practice

Author

Listed:
  • Dietmar Ernst

    (International School of Finance (IFS), Nuertingen-Geislingen University, Sigmaringer Straße 25, 72622 Nürtingen, Germany)

Abstract

The simulation-based company valuation values a company on the basis of the risks actually present in the company without having to derive them from the capital market data. The simulation-based company valuation takes into account the market imperfections, such as the probability of insolvency or the lack of diversification, and fulfils the legal requirements and auditing standards for a company valuation. The simulation-based company valuation is an alternative to the CAPM-based company valuation, which, under the assumption of perfect capital markets, derives the risks through capital market comparisons. A simulation-based business valuation has many advantages and is particularly suitable for valuing medium-sized companies, start-ups, companies in a crisis, and for integrating country-specific risks into business valuations. Due to the internationally widespread use of the CAPM, a simulation-based company valuation is still rarely used in practice. This article shows which valuation formulas are necessary for the application of a simulation-based company valuation. These are used for both the certainty equivalent method and for the risk premium method. In a concrete and valuation example, the simulation-based business planning and company valuation is carried out, and the derived valuation formulas are applied in a way that allows a transfer to concrete valuation cases in practice. It is shown that the certainty equivalent method and the risk premium method lead to identical company values.

Suggested Citation

  • Dietmar Ernst, 2022. "Simulation-Based Business Valuation: Methodical Implementation in the Valuation Practice," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(5), pages 1-17, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jjrfmx:v:15:y:2022:i:5:p:200-:d:802181
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1911-8074/15/5/200/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1911-8074/15/5/200/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Shiller, Robert J, 1981. "The Use of Volatility Measures in Assessing Market Efficiency," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 36(2), pages 291-304, May.
    2. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 2012. "Size, value, and momentum in international stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(3), pages 457-472.
    3. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 2015. "A five-factor asset pricing model," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(1), pages 1-22.
    4. Daniel Kahneman & Amos Tversky, 2013. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 6, pages 99-127, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    5. Mike Dempsey, 2013. "The Capital Asset Pricing Model ( CAPM ): The History of a Failed Revolutionary Idea in Finance?," Abacus, Accounting Foundation, University of Sydney, vol. 49, pages 7-23, January.
    6. Novy-Marx, Robert, 2013. "The other side of value: The gross profitability premium," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-28.
    7. Fishburn, Peter C, 1977. "Mean-Risk Analysis with Risk Associated with Below-Target Returns," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(2), pages 116-126, March.
    8. Uwe Wehrspohn & Dietmar Ernst, 2022. "When Do I Take Which Distribution?," SpringerBriefs in Business, Springer, number 978-3-031-07330-4, January.
    9. Michael J. Brennan & Ashley W. Wang, 2010. "The Mispricing Return Premium," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(9), pages 3437-3468.
    10. Zhang, Chu, 2009. "On the explanatory power of firm-specific variables in cross-sections of expected returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 306-317, March.
    11. Rubinstein, Mark E., 1973. "The Fundamental Theorem of Parameter-Preference Security Valuation," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 8(1), pages 61-69, January.
    12. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
    13. Gordon Hazen, 2009. "An Extension of the Internal Rate of Return to Stochastic Cash Flows," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 55(6), pages 1030-1034, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Dietmar Ernst & Werner Gleißner, 2022. "Paradigm Shift in Finance: The Transformation of the Theory from Perfect to Imperfect Capital Markets Using the Example of Company Valuation," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-13, September.
    2. Philip Sinnadurai, 2022. "“Empirical Corporate Finance: Opportunities and Challenges”—Editorial Synthesis of the Special Issue," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-8, August.
    3. Dietmar Ernst, 2023. "Risk Measures in Simulation-Based Business Valuation: Classification of Risk Measures in Risk Axiom Systems and Application in Valuation Practice," Risks, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-14, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zhong, Angel, 2018. "Idiosyncratic volatility in the Australian equity market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 105-125.
    2. Adam Zaremba & Jacob Koby Shemer, 2018. "Price-Based Investment Strategies," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-319-91530-2, December.
    3. Langlois, Hugues, 2020. "Measuring skewness premia," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(2), pages 399-424.
    4. Clarke, Charles, 2022. "The level, slope, and curve factor model for stocks," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(1), pages 159-187.
    5. Paul Handro & Bogdan Dima, 2024. "Analyzing Financial Markets Efficiency: Insights from a Bibliometric and Content Review," Journal of Financial Studies, Institute of Financial Studies, vol. 16(9), pages 119-175, May.
    6. Cong, Lin William & George, Nathan Darden & Wang, Guojun, 2023. "RIM-based value premium and factor pricing using value-price divergence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    7. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 2018. "Choosing factors," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(2), pages 234-252.
    8. Jansen, Maarten & Swinkels, Laurens & Zhou, Weili, 2021. "Anomalies in the China A-share market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    9. Rajnish Mehra & Sunil Wahal & Daruo Xie, 2021. "Is idiosyncratic risk conditionally priced?," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 12(2), pages 625-646, May.
    10. Hanauer, Matthias X. & Lauterbach, Jochim G., 2019. "The cross-section of emerging market stock returns," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 265-286.
    11. Calvet, Laurent E. & Betermier, Sebastien & Jo, Evan, 2019. "A Supply and Demand Approach to Equity Pricing," CEPR Discussion Papers 13974, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Lin, Qi, 2017. "Noisy prices and the Fama–French five-factor asset pricing model in China," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 141-163.
    13. Bartram, Söhnke M. & Grinblatt, Mark, 2021. "Global market inefficiencies," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(1), pages 234-259.
    14. Guo, Bin & Zhang, Wei & Zhang, Yongjie & Zhang, Han, 2017. "The five-factor asset pricing model tests for the Chinese stock market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 84-106.
    15. Zaremba, Adam & Maydybura, Alina, 2019. "The cross-section of returns in frontier equity markets: Integrated or segmented pricing?," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 219-238.
    16. Huber, Daniel & Jacobs, Heiko & Müller, Sebastian & Preissler, Fabian, 2023. "International factor models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    17. Sun, Kaisi & Wang, Hui & Zhu, Yifeng, 2022. "How is the change in left-tail risk priced in China?," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    18. Arvanitis, Stelios & Scaillet, Olivier & Topaloglou, Nikolas, 2020. "Spanning analysis of stock market anomalies under prospect stochastic dominance," Working Papers unige:134101, University of Geneva, Geneva School of Economics and Management.
    19. Cakici, Nusret & Zaremba, Adam, 2021. "Who should be afraid of infections? Pandemic exposure and the cross-section of stock returns," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    20. Foye, James, 2018. "A comprehensive test of the Fama-French five-factor model in emerging markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 199-222.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jjrfmx:v:15:y:2022:i:5:p:200-:d:802181. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.