IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jjrfmx/v15y2022i4p167-d788215.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

An Early Warning System for Currency Crises in Emerging Countries

Author

Listed:
  • Lutfa Tilat Ferdous

    (Department of Economics, Finance and Accounting, University of Leicester, Leicester LE1 7RH, UK)

  • Khnd Md Mostafa Kamal

    (Department of Information Systems and Business Analytics, Deakin University, Melbourne, VIC 3217, Australia)

  • Amirul Ahsan

    (Department of Finance, Deakin University, Melbourne, VIC 3217, Australia)

  • Nhung Hong Thuy Hoang

    (School of Economics, University of Economics Ho Chi Minh City, Ho Chi Minh 722700, Vietnam)

  • Munshi Samaduzzaman

    (School of Business and Law, Central Queensland University, Brisbane, QLD 4701, Australia)

Abstract

In this study we develop an early warning system (EWS) to forecast currency crises in emerging countries in Asia and Latin America, using logit regression on monthly data from 1992 to 2011. We found that macroeconomic and institutional variables are valuable indicators for forecasting crises. Our results show that a low level of export growth, current account surplus/GDP, GDP growth, a high level of real exchange rate growth, import growth, and short-term debt/reserves can explain the advent of a possible currency crisis. We found that a poor law and order scenario and high external conflict can lead to a currency crisis. Additional findings include high government stability and the absence of internal conflict, which contribute to an absence of democracy, ultimately leading to a currency crisis. The policy-makers can consider taking the effective pre-emptive actions to prevent the currency crises occurring in the future.

Suggested Citation

  • Lutfa Tilat Ferdous & Khnd Md Mostafa Kamal & Amirul Ahsan & Nhung Hong Thuy Hoang & Munshi Samaduzzaman, 2022. "An Early Warning System for Currency Crises in Emerging Countries," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-25, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jjrfmx:v:15:y:2022:i:4:p:167-:d:788215
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1911-8074/15/4/167/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1911-8074/15/4/167/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Graciela Kaminsky & Saul Lizondo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1998. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 1-48, March.
    2. Kumar, Mohan & Moorthy, Uma & Perraudin, William, 2003. "Predicting emerging market currency crashes," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 427-454, September.
    3. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1996. "Models of currency crises with self-fulfilling features," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(3-5), pages 1037-1047, April.
    4. Frankel, Jeffrey & Saravelos, George, 2012. "Can leading indicators assess country vulnerability? Evidence from the 2008–09 global financial crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 216-231.
    5. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
    6. Ari, Ali, 2012. "Early warning systems for currency crises: The Turkish case," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 391-410.
    7. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1996. "Currency Crashes in Emerging Markets: Empirical Indicators," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers 233424, University of California-Berkeley, Department of Economics.
    8. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
    9. Krugman, Paul, 1979. "A Model of Balance-of-Payments Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(3), pages 311-325, August.
    10. Peltonen, Tuomas A., 2006. "Are emerging market currency crises predictable? A test," Working Paper Series 571, European Central Bank.
    11. Markus Holopainen & Peter Sarlin, 2017. "Toward robust early-warning models: a horse race, ensembles and model uncertainty," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(12), pages 1933-1963, December.
    12. Derrick Reagle & Dominick Salvatore, 2005. "Robustness of Forecasting Financial Crises in Emerging Market Economies with Data Revisions—A Note," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 16(2), pages 209-216, April.
    13. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1996. "Currency crashes in emerging markets: An empirical treatment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 351-366, November.
    14. George Soros, 1999. "The International Financial Crisis," Challenge, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(2), pages 58-76, March.
    15. Glick, R. & Moreno, R., 1999. "Money and Credit, Competitiveness, and Currency Crises in Asia and Latin America," Papers 99-01, Economisch Institut voor het Midden en Kleinbedrijf-.
    16. Li, Wei-Xuan & Chen, Clara Chia-Sheng & French, Joseph J., 2015. "Toward an early warning system of financial crises: What can index futures and options tell us?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 87-99.
    17. Charles Engel & Kristin Forbes & Jeffrey Frankel, 2012. "Global Financial Crisis," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number enge11-2, June.
    18. Flood, Robert P. & Garber, Peter M., 1984. "Collapsing exchange-rate regimes : Some linear examples," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 1-13, August.
    19. Sevim, Cuneyt & Oztekin, Asil & Bali, Ozkan & Gumus, Serkan & Guresen, Erkam, 2014. "Developing an early warning system to predict currency crises," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 237(3), pages 1095-1104.
    20. Leblang, David & Satyanath, Shanker, 2008. "Politically generated uncertainty and currency crises: Theory, tests, and forecasts," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 480-497, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Hasse, Jean-Baptiste & Lecourt, Christelle & Siagh, Souhila, 2024. "Setting up a sovereign wealth fund to reduce currency crises," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Cruz-Rodríguez Alexis, 2013. "The Relationship between Fiscal Sustainability and Currency Crises in Some Selected Countries," Review of Economic Perspectives, Sciendo, vol. 13(4), pages 176-194, December.
    2. Ryota Nakatani, 2017. "The Effects of Productivity Shocks, Financial Shocks, and Monetary Policy on Exchange Rates: An Application of the Currency Crisis Model and Implications for Emerging Market Crises," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(11), pages 2545-2561, November.
    3. Stijn Claessens & M. Ayhan Kose, 2013. "Financial Crises: Explanations, Types and Implications," CAMA Working Papers 2013-06, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    4. Mohammad Karimi & Marcel‐Cristian Voia, 2019. "Empirics of currency crises: A duration analysis approach," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(3), pages 428-449, July.
    5. Andre Cartapanis, 2004. "Le declenchement des crises de change : qu'avons-nous appris depuis dix ans ?," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 97, pages 5-48.
    6. Mohana Rao BALAGA & Puja PADHI, 2017. "Evaluating Indian economy’s vulnerability to currency crisis," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(3(612), A), pages 97-114, Autumn.
    7. Yanping Zhao & Jakob Haan & Bert Scholtens & Haizhen Yang, 2014. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises: Are They the Same in Different Exchange Rate Regimes?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 25(5), pages 937-957, November.
    8. Bicaba, Zorobabel & Kapp, Daniel & Molteni, Francesco, 2014. "Stability periods between financial crises: The role of macroeconomic fundamentals and crises management policies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 346-360.
    9. Balaga Mohana Rao & Puja Padhi, 2019. "Identifying the Early Warnings of Currency Crisis in India," Foreign Trade Review, , vol. 54(4), pages 269-299, November.
    10. Bordo, M.D. & Meissner, C.M., 2016. "Fiscal and Financial Crises," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 355-412, Elsevier.
    11. Frankel, Jeffrey, 2010. "Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 25, pages 1439-1520, Elsevier.
    12. Balaga Mohana Rao & Puja Padhi, 2020. "Common Determinants of the Likelihood of Currency Crises in BRICS," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 21(3), pages 698-712, June.
    13. Lanbiao Liu & Chen Chen & Bo Wang, 2022. "Predicting financial crises with machine learning methods," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(5), pages 871-910, August.
    14. Croitoru, Lucian, 2013. "Liquidity, the October 2008 Speculative Attack and the Central Bank Reputation," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 18-51, June.
    15. Qin, Xiao & Liu, Liya, 2014. "Extremes, return level and identification of currency crises," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 439-450.
    16. Ali Ari & Raif Cergibozan, 2016. "A Comparison of Currency Crisis Dating Methods: Turkey 1990-2014," Montenegrin Journal of Economics, Economic Laboratory for Transition Research (ELIT), vol. 12(3), pages 19-37.
    17. Christofides, Charis & Eicher, Theo S. & Papageorgiou, Chris, 2016. "Did established Early Warning Signals predict the 2008 crises?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 103-114.
    18. Ivana Marjanoviæ & Milan Markoviæ, 2019. "Determinants of currency crises in the Republic of Serbia," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics and Business, vol. 37(1), pages 191-212.
    19. Alexis Cruz-Rodríguez, 2014. "Is there a relationship between fiscal sustainability and currency crises? International evidence based on causality tests," International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), Democritus University of Thrace (DUTH), Kavala Campus, Greece, vol. 7(1), pages 69-87, April.
    20. Wang, Peiwan & Zong, Lu, 2023. "Does machine learning help private sectors to alarm crises? Evidence from China’s currency market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 611(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jjrfmx:v:15:y:2022:i:4:p:167-:d:788215. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.