IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jjrfmx/v14y2021i8p379-d615604.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Hedging Long-Dated Oil Futures and Options Using Short-Dated Securities—Revisiting Metallgesellschaft

Author

Listed:
  • James S. Doran

    (School of Banking and Finance, UNSW Business School, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia)

  • Ehud I. Ronn

    (Department of Finance, McCombs School of Business, University of Texas at Austin, 2100 Speedway Stop B6600, Austin, TX 78712-1276, USA)

Abstract

Since the collapse of the Metallgesellschaft AG due to hedging losses in 1993, energy practitioners have been concerned with the ability to hedge long-dated linear and non-linear oil liabilities with short-dated futures and options. This paper identifies a model-free non-parametric approach to extrapolating futures prices and implied volatilities. When we expand the analysis to implementing hedge portfolios for long-dated futures or option contracts over the time period 2007–2017, we utilize the useful benchmark of hedge ratios arising from Schwartz and Smith. With respect to the empirical consequences of hedging long-dated futures and options with their short-dated counterparts, we find that the long-term tracking errors are, on average, quite close to zero, but there is increasing risk entailed in attempting to do so, as the hedge-tracking errors for both futures and option contracts increase with time-to-maturity.

Suggested Citation

  • James S. Doran & Ehud I. Ronn, 2021. "Hedging Long-Dated Oil Futures and Options Using Short-Dated Securities—Revisiting Metallgesellschaft," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-10, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jjrfmx:v:14:y:2021:i:8:p:379-:d:615604
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1911-8074/14/8/379/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1911-8074/14/8/379/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Benjamin Cheng & Christina Nikitopoulos-Sklibosios & Erik Schlogl, 2016. "Empirical Hedging Performance on Long-Dated Crude Oil Derivatives," Research Paper Series 376, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    2. Anand Shetty & John Manley, 2019. "Metallgesellschaft's hedging debacle: what went wrong and lessons learned," International Journal of Business Continuity and Risk Management, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 9(2), pages 97-116.
    3. Neuberger, Anthony, 1999. "Hedging Long-Term Exposures with Multiple Short-Term Futures Contracts," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(3), pages 429-459.
    4. Stephen Craig Pirrong, 1997. "Metallgesellschaft: A prudent hedger ruined, or a wildcatter on NYMEX?," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(5), pages 543-578, August.
    5. Eduardo Schwartz & James E. Smith, 2000. "Short-Term Variations and Long-Term Dynamics in Commodity Prices," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 46(7), pages 893-911, July.
    6. Yulia V. Veld‐Merkoulova & Frans A. de Roon, 2003. "Hedging long‐term commodity risk," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(2), pages 109-133, February.
    7. Guo, Zi-Yi, 2017. "Models with Short-Term Variations and Long-Term Dynamics in Risk Management of Commodity Derivatives," EconStor Preprints 167619, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    8. Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1997. "The Stochastic Behavior of Commodity Prices: Implications for Valuation and Hedging," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(3), pages 923-973, July.
    9. Franklin R. Edwards & Michael S. Canter, 1995. "The Collapse Of Metallgesellschaft: Unhedgeable Risks, Poor Hedging Strategy, Or Just Bad Luck?," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 8(1), pages 86-105, March.
    10. Delphine Lautier & Alain Galli, 2010. "Dynamic hedging strategies: an application to the crude oil market," Post-Print halshs-00640802, HAL.
    11. Katelijne A.E. Carbonez & Van Thi Tuong Nguyen & Piet Sercu, 2011. "Hedging with Two Futures Contracts: Simplicity Pays," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 17(5), pages 806-834, November.
    12. Donald Lien & Y. K. Tse, 2002. "Some Recent Developments in Futures Hedging," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(3), pages 357-396, July.
    13. repec:bla:jecsur:v:16:y:2002:i:3:p:357-96 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Ronald D. Ripple & Imad A. Moosa, 2007. "Hedging effectiveness and futures contract maturity: the case of NYMEX crude oil futures," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(9), pages 683-689.
    15. Franklin R. Edwards & Michael S. Canter, 1995. "The collapse of Metallgesellschaft: Unhedgeable risks, poor hedging strategy, or just bad luck?," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(3), pages 211-264, May.
    16. Christopher L. Culp & Merton H. Miller, 1995. "Hedging In The Theory Of Corporate Finance: A Reply To Our Critics," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 8(1), pages 121-128, March.
    17. repec:dau:papers:123456789/5470 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Kenichiro Shiraya & Akihiko Takahashi, 2012. "Pricing and hedging of long-term futures and forward contracts by a three-factor model," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(12), pages 1811-1826, December.
    19. repec:dau:papers:123456789/8839 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. repec:uts:finphd:37 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Delphine Lautier & Alain Galli, 2010. "Dynamic hedging strategies: an application to the crude oil market," Post-Print halshs-00640802, HAL.
    3. repec:dau:papers:123456789/5470 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Benjamin Cheng & Christina Nikitopoulos-Sklibosios & Erik Schlogl, 2016. "Empirical Hedging Performance on Long-Dated Crude Oil Derivatives," Research Paper Series 376, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    5. Wolfgang Bühler & Olaf Korn & Rainer Schöbel, 2005. "Hedging Long-Term Forwards with Short-Term Futures: A Two-Regime Approach," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 7(3), pages 185-212, October.
    6. Benjamin Tin Chun Cheng, 2017. "Pricing and Hedging of Long-Dated Commodity Derivatives," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 2-2017, January-A.
    7. Delphine Lautier & Yves Simon, 2004. "La volatilité des prix des matières premières," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 74(1), pages 45-84.
    8. Benjamin Cheng & Christina Sklibosios Nikitopoulos & Erik Schlögl, 2019. "Interest rate risk in long‐dated commodity options positions: To hedge or not to hedge?," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(1), pages 109-127, January.
    9. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Davide Ciferri & Alessandro Girardi, 2014. "Time-Varying Spot and Futures Oil Price Dynamics," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 61(1), pages 78-97, February.
    10. Benjamin Cheng & Christina Nikitopoulos-Sklibosios & Erik Schlogl, 2016. "Hedging Futures Options with Stochastic Interest Rates," Research Paper Series 375, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    11. Delphine Lautier, 1998. "Les opérations de Metallgesellschaft sur les marchés à terme de produits pétroliers:spéculation ou couverture ?," Revue Finance Contrôle Stratégie, revues.org, vol. 1(3), pages 107-129, September.
    12. Katelijne A.E. Carbonez & Van Thi Tuong Nguyen & Piet Sercu, 2011. "Hedging with Two Futures Contracts: Simplicity Pays," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 17(5), pages 806-834, November.
    13. Wolfgang Bühler & Olaf Korn, 2000. "Absicherung langfristiger Lieferverpflichtungen mit kurzfristigen Futures: Möglich oder unmöglich?," Schmalenbach Journal of Business Research, Springer, vol. 52(4), pages 315-347, June.
    14. repec:dau:papers:123456789/1227 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Prilly Oktoviany & Robert Knobloch & Ralf Korn, 2021. "A machine learning-based price state prediction model for agricultural commodities using external factors," Decisions in Economics and Finance, Springer;Associazione per la Matematica, vol. 44(2), pages 1063-1085, December.
    16. Mara Madaleno & Carlos Pinho, 2010. "Hedging Performance and Multiscale Relationships in the German Electricity Spot and Futures Markets," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 3(1), pages 1-37, December.
    17. Guedes, José & Santos, Pedro, 2016. "Valuing an offshore oil exploration and production project through real options analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 377-386.
    18. Bühler, Wolfgang & Korn, Olaf, 1998. "Hedging langfristiger Lieferverpflichtungen mit kurzfristigen Futures: möglich oder unmöglich?," ZEW Discussion Papers 98-20, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    19. Jilong Chen & Christian Ewald & Ruolan Ouyang & Sjur Westgaard & Xiaoxia Xiao, 2022. "Pricing commodity futures and determining risk premia in a three factor model with stochastic volatility: the case of Brent crude oil," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 313(1), pages 29-46, June.
    20. Fiuza de Bragança, Gabriel Godofredo & Daglish, Toby, 2016. "Can market power in the electricity spot market translate into market power in the hedge market?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 11-26.
    21. Bai, Yizhou & Xue, Cheng, 2021. "An empirical study on the regulated Chinese agricultural commodity futures market based on skew Ornstein-Uhlenbeck model," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    22. Moreno, Manuel & Novales, Alfonso & Platania, Federico, 2019. "Long-term swings and seasonality in energy markets," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 279(3), pages 1011-1023.
    23. Nguyen, Duc Binh Benno & Prokopczuk, Marcel, 2019. "Jumps in commodity markets," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 13(C), pages 55-70.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jjrfmx:v:14:y:2021:i:8:p:379-:d:615604. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.