Models of Investor Forecasting Behavior — Experimental Evidence
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
Download full text from publisher
References listed on IDEAS
- Hirota, Shinichi & Sunder, Shyam, 2007.
"Price bubbles sans dividend anchors: Evidence from laboratory stock markets,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1875-1909, June.
- Shin'ichi Hirota & Shyam Sunder, 2002. "Price Bubbles Sans Dividend Anchors: Evidence from Laboratory Stock Markets," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2616, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Feb 2007.
- Shinichi Hirota & Shyam Sunder, 2005. "Price Bubbles sans Dividend Anchors: Evidence from Laboratory Stock Markets," ISER Discussion Paper 0634, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
- Shiller, Robert J, 1986. "The Marsh-Merton Model of Managers' Smoothing of Dividends," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(3), pages 499-503, June.
- Hirota, Shinichi & Sunder, Shyam, 2007.
"Price bubbles sans dividend anchors: Evidence from laboratory stock markets,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1875-1909, June.
- Shin'ichi Hirota & Shyam Sunder, 2002. "Price Bubbles Sans Dividend Anchors: Evidence from Laboratory Stock Markets," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2616, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Feb 2007.
- Shinichi Hirota & Shyam Sunder, 2005. "Price Bubbles sans Dividend Anchors: Evidence from Laboratory Stock Markets," ISER Discussion Paper 0634, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
- Chuang, Wen-I & Lee, Bong-Soo, 2006. "An empirical evaluation of the overconfidence hypothesis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(9), pages 2489-2515, September.
- Shiller, Robert J, 1981.
"Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?,"
American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 421-436, June.
- Robert J. Shiller, 1980. "Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?," NBER Working Papers 0456, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- William A. Brock & Cars H. Hommes, 1997.
"A Rational Route to Randomness,"
Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(5), pages 1059-1096, September.
- Brock, W.A. & Hommes, C.H., 1995. "Rational Routes to Randomness," Working papers 9506, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
- Brock, W.A., 1995. "A Rational Route to Randomness," Working papers 9530, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
- William A. Brock & Cars H. Hommes, 1995. "Rational Routes to Randomness," Working Papers 95-03-029, Santa Fe Institute.
- Brock, W.A. & Hommes, C.H., 1996. "A Rational Route to Randomness," Working papers 9530r, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
- LeRoy, Stephen F, 1989. "Efficient Capital Markets and Martingales," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 27(4), pages 1583-1621, December.
- Campbell, John Y & Shiller, Robert J, 1987.
"Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models,"
Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(5), pages 1062-1088, October.
- John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1986. "Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models," NBER Working Papers 1885, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1986. "Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 785, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Campbell, John & Shiller, Robert, 1987. "Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models," Scholarly Articles 3122490, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- LeRoy, Stephen F & Porter, Richard D, 1981. "The Present-Value Relation: Tests Based on Implied Variance Bounds," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(3), pages 555-574, May.
- John Y. Campbell, Robert J. Shiller, 1988.
"The Dividend-Price Ratio and Expectations of Future Dividends and Discount Factors,"
The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(3), pages 195-228.
- John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1986. "The Dividend-Price Ratio and Expectations of Future Dividends and Discount Factors," NBER Working Papers 2100, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Robert J. Shiller & John Y. Campbell, 1986. "The Dividend-Price Ratio and Expectations of Future Dividends and Discount Factors," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 812, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Wing-keung Wong & Raymond Chan, 2004. "On the estimation of cost of capital and its reliability," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(3), pages 365-372.
- Brock, William A. & Hommes, Cars H., 1998.
"Heterogeneous beliefs and routes to chaos in a simple asset pricing model,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(8-9), pages 1235-1274, August.
- Brock, W.A. & Hommes, C.H., 1996. "Hetergeneous Beliefs and Routes to Chaos in a Simple Asset Pricing Model," Working papers 9621, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
- Jose A. Scheinkman & Wei Xiong, 2003. "Overconfidence and Speculative Bubbles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 111(6), pages 1183-1219, December.
- repec:cdl:ucsbec:13-89 is not listed on IDEAS
- Sheryl B. Ball & Charles A. Holt, 1998. "Classroom Games: Speculation and Bubbles in an Asset Market," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 12(1), pages 207-218, Winter.
- Volodymyr Lugovskyy & Daniela Puzzello & Steven Tucker, 2009. "An Experimental Study of Bubble Formation in Asset Markets Using the Tâtonnement Pricing Mechanism," Working Papers in Economics 09/19, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
- Ernan Haruvy & Yaron Lahav & Charles N. Noussair, 2007. "Traders' Expectations in Asset Markets: Experimental Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(5), pages 1901-1920, December.
- William A. Brock & Cars H. Hommes, 2001.
"A Rational Route to Randomness,"
Chapters, in: W. D. Dechert (ed.), Growth Theory, Nonlinear Dynamics and Economic Modelling, chapter 16, pages 402-438,
Edward Elgar Publishing.
- William A. Brock & Cars H. Hommes, 1997. "A Rational Route to Randomness," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(5), pages 1059-1096, September.
- Brock, W.A. & Hommes, C.H., 1995. "Rational Routes to Randomness," Working papers 9506, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
- William A. Brock & Cars H. Hommes, 1995. "Rational Routes to Randomness," Working Papers 95-03-029, Santa Fe Institute.
- Brock, W.A. & Hommes, C.H., 1996. "A Rational Route to Randomness," Working papers 9530r, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
- Ramnath, Sundaresh & Rock, Steve & Shane, Philip, 2008. "The financial analyst forecasting literature: A taxonomy with suggestions for further research," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 34-75.
- Smith, Vernon L & Suchanek, Gerry L & Williams, Arlington W, 1988. "Bubbles, Crashes, and Endogenous Expectations in Experimental Spot Asset Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(5), pages 1119-1151, September.
- Vinod Cheriyan & Anton J. Kleywegt, 2016. "A dynamical systems model of price bubbles and cycles," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(2), pages 309-336, February.
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Hirota, Shinichi & Huber, Juergen & Stöckl, Thomas & Sunder, Shyam, 2022. "Speculation, money supply and price indeterminacy in financial markets: An experimental study," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 200(C), pages 1275-1296.
- Shinichi Hirota & Juergen Huber & Thomas Stock & Shyam Sunder, 2018.
"Speculation and Price Indeterminacy in Financial Markets: An Experimental Study,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
2134, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Shinichi Hirota & Juergen Huber & Thomas Stock & Shyam Sunder, 2018. "Speculation and Price Indeterminacy in Financial Markets: An Experimental Study," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2134R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Apr 2020.
- Lansing, Kevin J., 2006.
"Lock-In Of Extrapolative Expectations In An Asset Pricing Model,"
Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(3), pages 317-348, June.
- Kevin J. Lansing, 2005. "Lock-in of extrapolative expectations in an asset pricing model," Working Paper Series 2004-06, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Hommes, Cars H., 2006.
"Heterogeneous Agent Models in Economics and Finance,"
Handbook of Computational Economics, in: Leigh Tesfatsion & Kenneth L. Judd (ed.), Handbook of Computational Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 23, pages 1109-1186,
Elsevier.
- Cars H. Hommes, 2005. "Heterogeneous Agent Models in Economics and Finance," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 05-056/1, Tinbergen Institute.
- Vinod Cheriyan & Anton J. Kleywegt, 2016. "A dynamical systems model of price bubbles and cycles," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(2), pages 309-336, February.
- Matthijs Lof, 2015.
"Rational Speculators, Contrarians, and Excess Volatility,"
Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 61(8), pages 1889-1901, August.
- Lof, Matthijs, 2012. "Rational Speculators, Contrarians and Excess Volatility," MPRA Paper 43490, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Boswijk, H. Peter & Hommes, Cars H. & Manzan, Sebastiano, 2007.
"Behavioral heterogeneity in stock prices,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1938-1970, June.
- Peter Boswijk & Cars H. Hommes & Sebastiano Manzan, 2005. "Behavioral Heterogeneity in Stock Prices," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 05-052/1, Tinbergen Institute.
- Boswijk, H.P. & Hommes C.H. & Manzan, S., 2005. "Behavioral Heterogeneity in Stock Prices," CeNDEF Working Papers 05-12, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
- Hommes, C.H., 2005. "Heterogeneous Agent Models in Economics and Finance, In: Handbook of Computational Economics II: Agent-Based Computational Economics, edited by Leigh Tesfatsion and Ken Judd , Elsevier, Amsterdam 2006," CeNDEF Working Papers 05-03, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
- Sonnemans, Joep & Tuinstra, Jan, 2010.
"Positive expectations feedback experiments and number guessing games as models of financial markets,"
Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 964-984, December.
- Joep Sonnemans & Jan Tuinstra, 2008. "Positive Expectations Feedback Experiments and Number Guessing Games as Models of Financial Markets," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 08-076/1, Tinbergen Institute.
- Sonnemans, J. & Tuinstra, J., 2010. "Positive expectations feedback experiments and number guessing games as models of financial markets," CeNDEF Working Papers 10-08, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
- Sonnemans, J. & Tuinstra, J., 2008. "Positive expectations feedback experiments and number guessing games as models of financial markets," CeNDEF Working Papers 08-07, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
- Lof, Matthijs, 2012. "Heterogeneity in stock prices: A STAR model with multivariate transition function," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(12), pages 1845-1854.
- Shinichi Hirota & Juergen Huber & Thomas Stock & Shyam Sunder, 2015. "Investment Horizons and Price Indeterminacy in Financial Markets," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2001, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Zhao, Dongxu & Li, Kai, 2022. "Bounded rationality, adaptive behaviour, and asset prices," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
- Liu, Yi-Fang & Zhang, Wei & Xu, Chao & Vitting Andersen, Jørgen & Xu, Hai-Chuan, 2014. "Impact of information cost and switching of trading strategies in an artificial stock market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 407(C), pages 204-215.
- Heemeijer, Peter & Hommes, Cars & Sonnemans, Joep & Tuinstra, Jan, 2009.
"Price stability and volatility in markets with positive and negative expectations feedback: An experimental investigation,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 1052-1072, May.
- Heemeijer, P. & Hommes, C.H. & Sonnemans, J. & Tuinstra, J., 2006. "Price Stability and Volatility in Markets with Positive and Negative Expectations Feedback: An Experimental Investigation," CeNDEF Working Papers 06-05, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
- Hommes, Cars, 2011.
"The heterogeneous expectations hypothesis: Some evidence from the lab,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 1-24, January.
- Hommes, C.H., 2010. "The Heterogeneous Expectations Hypothesis: Some Evidence from the Lab," CeNDEF Working Papers 10-06, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
- Halim, Edward & Riyanto, Yohanes E. & Roy, Nilanjan, 2022. "Sharing idiosyncratic risk even though prices are “wrong”," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
- Michailova, Julija, 2010.
"Overconfidence, Risk Aversion and Individual Financial Decisions in Experimental Asset Markets,"
MPRA Paper
53114, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jan 2014.
- Michailova, Julija, 2010. "Overconfidence, risk aversion and (economic) behavior of individual traders in experimental asset markets," MPRA Paper 26390, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Saskia ter Ellen & Willem F. C. Verschoor, 2018.
"Heterogeneous Beliefs and Asset Price Dynamics: A Survey of Recent Evidence,"
Dynamic Modeling and Econometrics in Economics and Finance, in: Fredj Jawadi (ed.), Uncertainty, Expectations and Asset Price Dynamics, pages 53-79,
Springer.
- Saskia ter Ellen & Willem F.C. Verschoor, 2017. "Heterogeneous beliefs and asset price dynamics: a survey of recent evidence," Working Paper 2017/22, Norges Bank.
- Wei Xiong & Jialin Yu, 2011.
"The Chinese Warrants Bubble,"
American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(6), pages 2723-2753, October.
- Wei Xiong & Jialin Yu, 2009. "The Chinese Warrants Bubble," NBER Working Papers 15481, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Aragón, Nicolás & Roulund, Rasmus Pank, 2020. "Confidence and decision-making in experimental asset markets," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 178(C), pages 688-718.
More about this item
Keywords
behavioral OR; forecasting; finance;All these keywords.
Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jjrfmx:v:11:y:2017:i:1:p:3-:d:124691. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.