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Correcting the Actual Reproduction Number: A Simple Method to Estimate R 0 from Early Epidemic Growth Data

Author

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  • Hiroshi Nishiura

    (PRESTO, Japan Science and Technology Agency, Saitama, 332-0012, Japan
    Theoretical Epidemiology, University of Utrecht, Yalelaan 7, Utrecht, 3584CL, The Netherlands)

Abstract

The basic reproduction number, R 0 , a summary measure of the transmission potential of an infectious disease, is estimated from early epidemic growth rate, but a likelihood-based method for the estimation has yet to be developed. The present study corrects the concept of the actual reproduction number, offering a simple framework for estimating R 0 without assuming exponential growth of cases. The proposed method is applied to the HIV epidemic in European countries, yielding R 0 values ranging from 3.60 to 3.74, consistent with those based on the Euler-Lotka equation. The method also permits calculating the expected value of R 0 using a spreadsheet.

Suggested Citation

  • Hiroshi Nishiura, 2010. "Correcting the Actual Reproduction Number: A Simple Method to Estimate R 0 from Early Epidemic Growth Data," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 7(1), pages 1-12, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:7:y:2010:i:1:p:291-302:d:6899
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Heidi Muller & Chris Bauch, 2010. "When Do Sexual Partnerships Need to Be Accounted for in Transmission Models of Human Papillomavirus?," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 7(2), pages 1-16, February.
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