United States Long-Term Trends in Adult BMI (1959–2018): Unraveling the Roots of the Obesity Epidemic

The escalating rates of obesity since the 1950s poses a critical public health challenge across all age groups in the United States. While numerous studies have examined cross-sectional disparities across racial, ethnic, and socioeconomic groups, there has been limited research on long-term trends. To address this gap, we analyzed average adult body mass index (BMI) trends from 1959 to 2018, using data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) and the National Health Examination Survey (NHES). Employing time series analysis, we evaluated BMI trends across income, education, and race/ethnicity. The results revealed a consistent upward trajectory in average BMI across all groups over the six-decade period, with no significant differences by income or education levels among high school graduates. However, individuals with less than a high school education displayed a more gradual increase in BMI. Racial disparities were also evident, with Black adults showing higher BMI growth rates compared to White adults, while Hispanic and other racial groups experienced slower increases. These findings underscore the need for systemic interventions to address the ongoing obesity epidemic, emphasizing the importance of research to identify trends over time and a system-thinking approach to inform effective population-level interventions and policy decisions.