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Prediction Model for the Risk of HIV Infection among MSM in China: Validation and Stability

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  • Yinqiao Dong

    (School of Public Health, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai 200025, China
    Department of Occupational Health, School of Public Health, China Medical University, Shenyang 110122, China
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • Shangbin Liu

    (School of Public Health, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai 200025, China
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • Danni Xia

    (School of Public Health, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai 200025, China)

  • Chen Xu

    (School of Public Health, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai 200025, China)

  • Xiaoyue Yu

    (School of Public Health, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai 200025, China)

  • Hui Chen

    (School of Public Health, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai 200025, China)

  • Rongxi Wang

    (School of Public Health, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai 200025, China)

  • Yujie Liu

    (School of Public Health, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai 200025, China)

  • Jingwen Dong

    (School of Public Health, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai 200025, China)

  • Fan Hu

    (School of Public Health, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai 200025, China)

  • Yong Cai

    (School of Public Health, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai 200025, China)

  • Ying Wang

    (School of Public Health, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai 200025, China)

Abstract

The impact of psychosocial factors on increasing the risk of HIV infection among men who have sex with men (MSM) has attracted increasing attention. We aimed to develop and validate an integrated prediction model, especially incorporating emerging psychosocial variables, for predicting the risk of HIV infection among MSM. We surveyed and collected sociodemographic, psychosocial, and behavioral information from 547 MSM in China. The participants were split into a training set and a testing set in a 3:1 theoretical ratio. The prediction model was constructed by introducing the important variables selected with the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression, applying multivariate logistic regression, and visually assessing the risk of HIV infection through the nomogram. Receiver operating characteristic curves (ROC), Kolmogorov–Smirnov test, calibration plots, Hosmer–Lemeshow test and population stability index (PSI) were performed to test validity and stability of the model. Four of the 15 selected variables—unprotected anal intercourse, multiple sexual partners, involuntary subordination and drug use before sex—were included in the prediction model. The results indicated that the comprehensive prediction model we developed had relatively good predictive performance and stability in identifying MSM at high-risk for HIV infection, thus providing targeted interventions for high-risk MSM.

Suggested Citation

  • Yinqiao Dong & Shangbin Liu & Danni Xia & Chen Xu & Xiaoyue Yu & Hui Chen & Rongxi Wang & Yujie Liu & Jingwen Dong & Fan Hu & Yong Cai & Ying Wang, 2022. "Prediction Model for the Risk of HIV Infection among MSM in China: Validation and Stability," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(2), pages 1-14, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:19:y:2022:i:2:p:1010-:d:726604
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Parsons, J.T. & Grov, C. & Golub, S.A., 2012. "Sexual compulsivity, co-occurring psychosocial health problems, and HIV risk among gay and bisexual men: Further evidence of a syndemic," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 102(1), pages 156-162.
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