Biopsychosocial Factors for Chronicity in Individuals with Non-Specific Low Back Pain: An Umbrella Review

Low back pain (LBP) is a global and disabling problem. A considerable number of systematic reviews published over the past decade have reported a range of factors that increase the risk of chronicity due to LBP. This study summarizes up-to-date and high-level research evidence on the biopsychosocial prognostic factors of outcomes in adults with non-specific low back pain at follow-up. An umbrella review was carried out. PubMed, the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, Web of Science, PsycINFO, CINAHL Plus and PEDro were searched for studies published between 1 January 2008 and 20 March 2020. Two reviewers independently screened abstracts and full texts, extracted data and assessed review quality. Fifteen systematic reviews met the eligibility criteria; all were deemed reliable according to our criteria. There were five prognostic factors with consistent evidence of association with poor acute–subacute LBP outcomes in the long term (high levels of pain intensity and disability, high emotional distress, negative recovery expectations and high physical demands at work), as well as one factor with consistent evidence of no association (low education levels). For mixed-duration LBP, there was one predictor consistently associated with poor outcomes in the long term (high pain catastrophism). We observed insufficient evidence to synthesize social factors as well as to fully assess predictors in the chronic phase of LBP. This study provides consistent evidence of the predictive value of biological and psychological factors for LBP outcomes in the long term. The identified prognostic factors should be considered for inclusion into low back pain explanatory models.