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Bidirectional Causality between Spreading COVID-19 and Individual Mobilisation with Consumption Motives across Prefectural Borders in Japan

Author

Listed:
  • Yasuhiro Kawano

    (Department of Neuropsychiatry, Division of Neuroscience, Graduate School of Medicine, Mie University, Tsu 514-8507, Japan)

  • Ryusuke Matsumoto

    (Department of Neuropsychiatry, Division of Neuroscience, Graduate School of Medicine, Mie University, Tsu 514-8507, Japan)

  • Eishi Motomura

    (Department of Neuropsychiatry, Division of Neuroscience, Graduate School of Medicine, Mie University, Tsu 514-8507, Japan)

  • Takashi Shiroyama

    (Department of Neuropsychiatry, Division of Neuroscience, Graduate School of Medicine, Mie University, Tsu 514-8507, Japan)

  • Motohiro Okada

    (Department of Neuropsychiatry, Division of Neuroscience, Graduate School of Medicine, Mie University, Tsu 514-8507, Japan)

Abstract

A combination of pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical interventions as well as social restrictions has been recommended to prevent the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Therefore, social contact surveys play an essential role as the basis for more effective measures. This study attempts to explore the fundamental basis of the expansion of COVID-19. Temporal bidirectional causalities between the numbers of newly confirmed COVID-19 cases (NCCC) and individual mobilisations with consumption motives across prefecture borders in three metropolitan regions in Japan were analysed using vector autoregression models. Mobilisation with consumption in pubs from Kanto to Tokai contributed to the spread of COVID-19 in both regions. Meanwhile, causal mobilisation with consumption motives in Kansai also contributed to the expansion of COVID-19; however, the pattern was dependent on the industrial characteristics of each prefecture in Kansai. Furthermore, the number of pub visitors in Kanto immediately decreased when NCCC increased in Kanto. In contrast, the causal mobilisations for the expansion of COVID-19 in the Tokai and Kansai regions were unaffected by the increasing NCCC. These findings partially proved the validity of the conventional governmental measures to suppress pub visitors across prefectural borders. Nevertheless, the individual causal mobilisations with consumption motives that contributed to the increasing COVID-19 cases are not identical nationwide, and thus, regional characteristics should be considered when devising preventive strategies.

Suggested Citation

  • Yasuhiro Kawano & Ryusuke Matsumoto & Eishi Motomura & Takashi Shiroyama & Motohiro Okada, 2022. "Bidirectional Causality between Spreading COVID-19 and Individual Mobilisation with Consumption Motives across Prefectural Borders in Japan," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(15), pages 1-17, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:19:y:2022:i:15:p:9070-:d:871422
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Takashi Shiroyama & Kouji Fukuyama & Motohiro Okada, 2021. "Effects of Financial Expenditure of Prefectures/Municipalities on Regional Suicide Mortality in Japan," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(16), pages 1-16, August.
    2. Hajime Tomura, 2022. "Associations between components of household expenditures and the rate of change in the number of new confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Japan: Time-series analysis," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 17(4), pages 1-33, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Yaming Zhang & Jiaqi Zhang & Yaya Hamadou Koura & Changyuan Feng & Yanyuan Su & Wenjie Song & Linghao Kong, 2023. "Multiple Concurrent Causal Relationships and Multiple Governance Pathways for Non-Pharmaceutical Intervention Policies in Pandemics: A Fuzzy Set Qualitative Comparative Analysis Based on 102 Countries," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(2), pages 1-16, January.

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