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Spatiotemporal Distribution and Evolution of Digestive Tract Cancer Cases in Lujiang County, China since 2012

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  • Kang Ma

    (Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Response in the Yangtze-Huaihe River Basin, School of Geography and Tourism, Anhui Normal University, Wuhu 241002, China)

  • Yuesheng Lin

    (Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Response in the Yangtze-Huaihe River Basin, School of Geography and Tourism, Anhui Normal University, Wuhu 241002, China)

  • Xiaopeng Zhang

    (Hefei Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hefei 230022, China)

  • Fengman Fang

    (Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Response in the Yangtze-Huaihe River Basin, School of Geography and Tourism, Anhui Normal University, Wuhu 241002, China)

  • Yong Zhang

    (Department of Geological Sciences, University of Alabama, Tuscaloosa, AL 35487, USA)

  • Jiajia Li

    (Hefei Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hefei 230022, China)

  • Youru Yao

    (Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Response in the Yangtze-Huaihe River Basin, School of Geography and Tourism, Anhui Normal University, Wuhu 241002, China)

  • Lei Ge

    (Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Response in the Yangtze-Huaihe River Basin, School of Geography and Tourism, Anhui Normal University, Wuhu 241002, China)

  • Huarong Tan

    (Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Response in the Yangtze-Huaihe River Basin, School of Geography and Tourism, Anhui Normal University, Wuhu 241002, China)

  • Fei Wang

    (Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Response in the Yangtze-Huaihe River Basin, School of Geography and Tourism, Anhui Normal University, Wuhu 241002, China)

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the spatiotemporal distribution and evolution of digestive tract cancer (DTC) in Lujiang County, China by using the geographic information system technology. Results of this study are expected to provide a scientific basis for effective prevention and control of DTC. The data on DTC cases in Lujiang County, China, were downloaded from the Data Center of the Center for Disease Control and Prevention in Hefei, Anhui Province, China, while the demographic data were sourced from the demographic department in China. Systematic statistical analyses, including the spatial empirical Bayes smoothing, spatial autocorrelation, hotspot statistics, and Kulldorff’s retrospective space-time scan, were used to identify the spatial and spatiotemporal clusters of DTC. GM(1,1) and standard deviation ellipses were then applied to predict the future evolution of the spatial pattern of the DTC cases in Lujiang County. The results showed that DTC in Lujiang County had obvious spatiotemporal clustering. The spatial distribution of DTC cases increases gradually from east to west in the county in a stepwise pattern. The peak of DTC cases occurred in 2012–2013, and the high-case spatial clusters were located mainly in the northwest of Lujiang County. At the 99% confidence interval, two spatiotemporal clusters were identified. From 2012 to 2017, the cases of DTC in Lujiang County gradually shifted to the high-incidence area in the northwest, and the spatial distribution range experienced a process of “dispersion-clustering”. The cases of DTC in Lujiang County will continue to move to the northwest from 2018 to 2025, and the predicted spatial clustering tends to be more obvious.

Suggested Citation

  • Kang Ma & Yuesheng Lin & Xiaopeng Zhang & Fengman Fang & Yong Zhang & Jiajia Li & Youru Yao & Lei Ge & Huarong Tan & Fei Wang, 2022. "Spatiotemporal Distribution and Evolution of Digestive Tract Cancer Cases in Lujiang County, China since 2012," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(12), pages 1-13, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:19:y:2022:i:12:p:7451-:d:841418
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Atikaimu Wubuli & Feng Xue & Daobin Jiang & Xuemei Yao & Halmurat Upur & Qimanguli Wushouer, 2015. "Socio-Demographic Predictors and Distribution of Pulmonary Tuberculosis (TB) in Xinjiang, China: A Spatial Analysis," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(12), pages 1-22, December.
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