IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jijerp/v18y2021i23p12784-d694782.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Epidemiological Trends of Malaria in Five Years and under Children of Nsanje District in Malawi, 2015–2019

Author

Listed:
  • Theodore Gondwe

    (Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, College of Public Health, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou 450001, China)

  • Yongi Yang

    (Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, College of Public Health, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou 450001, China)

  • Simeon Yosefe

    (Department of Planning and Policy Development, Ministry of Health Malawi, Lilongwe 30377, Malawi)

  • Maisa Kasanga

    (Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, College of Public Health, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou 450001, China)

  • Griffin Mulula

    (Department of Education Planning, Ministry of Education Malawi, Lilongwe 328, Malawi)

  • Mphatso Prince Luwemba

    (Mathematical Department, Chancellor College, University of Malawi, Zomba 280, Malawi)

  • Annie Jere

    (School of Engineering, Malawi University of Business and Applied Sciences, Blantyre 303, Malawi)

  • Victor Daka

    (Public Health Department, Michael Chilufya Sata School of Medicine, Copperbelt University, Ndola 21692, Zambia)

  • Tobela Mudenda

    (Pathology Department, Ndola Teaching Hospital, Ndola 10101, Zambia)

Abstract

Background: Malaria continues to be a major public health problem in Malawi and the greatest load of mortality and morbidity occurs in children five years and under. However, there is no information yet regarding trends and predictions of malaria incidence in children five years and under at district hospital level, particularly at Nsanje district hospital. Aim: Therefore, this study aimed at investigating the trends of malaria morbidity and mortality in order to design appropriate interventions on the best approach to contain the disease in the near future. Methodology: Trend analysis of malaria morbidity and mortality together with time series analysis using the SARIMA (Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) model was used to predict malaria incidence in Nsanje district. Results: The SARIMA model used malaria cases from 2015 to 2019 and created the best model to forecast the malaria cases in Nsanje from 2020 to 2022. An SARIMA (0, 1, 2) (0,1,1) 12 was suitable for forecasting the incidence of malaria for Nsanje. Conclusion: The mortality and morbidity trend showed that malaria cases were growing at a fluctuating rate at Nsanje district hospital. The relative errors between the actual values and predicted values indicated that the predicted values matched the actual values well. Therefore, the model proved that it was adequate to forecast monthly malaria cases and it had a good fit, hence, was appropriate for this study

Suggested Citation

  • Theodore Gondwe & Yongi Yang & Simeon Yosefe & Maisa Kasanga & Griffin Mulula & Mphatso Prince Luwemba & Annie Jere & Victor Daka & Tobela Mudenda, 2021. "Epidemiological Trends of Malaria in Five Years and under Children of Nsanje District in Malawi, 2015–2019," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(23), pages 1-12, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:18:y:2021:i:23:p:12784-:d:694782
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/18/23/12784/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/18/23/12784/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Faustin Habyarimana & Shaun Ramroop, 2020. "Prevalence and Risk Factors Associated with Malaria among Children Aged Six Months to 14 Years Old in Rwanda: Evidence from 2017 Rwanda Malaria Indicator Survey," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(21), pages 1-13, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Camelia Herman & Colleen M. Leonard & Perpetua Uhomoibhi & Mark Maire & Delynn Moss & Uwem Inyang & Ado Abubakar & Abiodun Ogunniyi & Nwando Mba & Stacie M. Greby & McPaul I. Okoye & Nnaemeka C. Iriem, 2023. "Non-falciparum malaria infection and IgG seroprevalence among children under 15 years in Nigeria, 2018," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-13, December.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:18:y:2021:i:23:p:12784-:d:694782. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.