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Increased Transmissibility of the SARS-CoV-2 Alpha Variant in a Japanese Population

Author

Listed:
  • Hideo Tanaka

    (Fujiidera Public Health Center of Osaka Prefectural Government, Fujiidera 583-0024, Japan)

  • Atsushi Hirayama

    (Department of Public Health and Medical Affairs, Osaka Prefectural Government, Osaka 540-8507, Japan)

  • Hitomi Nagai

    (Ibaraki Public Health Center of Osaka Prefectural Government, Ibaraki 567-8585, Japan)

  • Chika Shirai

    (Hirakata City of Public Health Center, Hirakata 573-8666, Japan)

  • Yuki Takahashi

    (Fujiidera Public Health Center of Osaka Prefectural Government, Fujiidera 583-0024, Japan)

  • Hiroto Shinomiya

    (Ehime Prefectural Institute of Public Health and Environmental Science, Matsuyama 790-0003, Japan)

  • Chie Taniguchi

    (College of Nursing, Aichi Medical University, Nagakute 480-1195, Japan)

  • Tsuyoshi Ogata

    (Itako Public Health Center of Ibaraki Prefectural Government, Itako 311-2422, Japan)

Abstract

To assess the relative transmissibility of the SARS-CoV-2 Alpha variant compared to the pre-existing SARS-CoV-2 in Japan, we performed a cross-sectional study to determine the secondary attack rate of COVID-19 in household contacts before and after the Alpha variant became dominant in Osaka. We accessed 290 household contacts whose index cases were diagnosed between 1 and 20 December 2020 (the third epidemic group), at a time when Osaka was free of the Alpha variant. We also accessed 398 household contacts whose index cases were diagnosed between 20 April and 3 May 2021 (the fourth epidemic group), by which time the Alpha variant had become dominant. We identified 124 household contacts whose index case was determined positive for the Alpha variant (Alpha group) in this fourth group. The secondary attack rates in the fourth group (34.7%) and the Alpha group (38.7%) were significantly higher than that in the third group (19.3%, p < 0.001). Multivariable Poisson regression analysis with a robust error variance showed a significant excess risk in the fourth group (1.90, 95% CI = 1.47–2.48) and the Alpha group (2.34, 95% CI = 1.71–3.21). This finding indicates that the SARS-CoV-2 Alpha variant has an approximately 1.9–2.3-fold higher transmissibility than the pre-existing virus in the Japanese population.

Suggested Citation

  • Hideo Tanaka & Atsushi Hirayama & Hitomi Nagai & Chika Shirai & Yuki Takahashi & Hiroto Shinomiya & Chie Taniguchi & Tsuyoshi Ogata, 2021. "Increased Transmissibility of the SARS-CoV-2 Alpha Variant in a Japanese Population," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(15), pages 1-6, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:18:y:2021:i:15:p:7752-:d:598904
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Akira Watanabe & Hiroyuki Matsuda, 2023. "Effectiveness of feedback control and the trade-off between death by COVID-19 and costs of countermeasures," Health Care Management Science, Springer, vol. 26(1), pages 46-61, March.
    2. Gong, Jiangyue & Gujjula, Krishna Reddy & Ntaimo, Lewis, 2023. "An integrated chance constraints approach for optimal vaccination strategies under uncertainty for COVID-19," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 87(PA).

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