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Near-Source Risk Functions for Particulate Matter Are Critical When Assessing the Health Benefits of Local Abatement Strategies

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  • David Segersson

    (Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, 601 76 Norrköping, Sweden
    Department of Environmental Science, Stockholm University, 114 19 Stockholm, Sweden)

  • Christer Johansson

    (Department of Environmental Science, Stockholm University, 114 19 Stockholm, Sweden
    Environment and Health Administration, 104 20 Stockholm, Sweden)

  • Bertil Forsberg

    (Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Section of Sustainable Health, Umea University, 901 87 Umeå, Sweden)

Abstract

When mortality or other health outcomes attributable to fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) are estimated, the same exposure–response function (ERF) is usually assumed regardless of the source and composition of the particles, and independently of the spatial resolution applied in the exposure model. While several recent publications indicate that ERFs based on exposure models resolving within-city gradients are steeper per concentration unit (?gm ?3 ), the ERF for PM 2.5 recommended by the World Health Organization does not reflect this observation and is heavily influenced by studies based on between-city exposure estimates. We evaluated the potential health benefits of three air pollution abatement strategies: electrification of light vehicles, reduced use of studded tires, and introduction of congestion charges in Stockholm and Gothenburg, using different ERFs. We demonstrated that using a single ERF for PM 2.5 likely results in an underestimation of the effect of local measures and may be misleading when evaluating abatement strategies. We also suggest applying ERFs that distinguish between near-source and regional contributions of exposure to PM 2.5 . If separate ERFs are applied for near-source and regional PM 2.5 , congestion charges as well as a reduction of studded tire use are estimated to be associated with a significant reduction in the mortality burden in both Gothenburg and Stockholm. In some scenarios the number of premature deaths is more than 10 times higher using separate ERFs in comparison to using a single ERF irrespective of sources as recommended by the WHO. For electrification, the net change in attributable deaths is small or within the uncertainty range depending on the choice of ERF.

Suggested Citation

  • David Segersson & Christer Johansson & Bertil Forsberg, 2021. "Near-Source Risk Functions for Particulate Matter Are Critical When Assessing the Health Benefits of Local Abatement Strategies," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(13), pages 1-15, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:18:y:2021:i:13:p:6847-:d:582443
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kaspar R. Daellenbach & Gaëlle Uzu & Jianhui Jiang & Laure-Estelle Cassagnes & Zaira Leni & Athanasia Vlachou & Giulia Stefenelli & Francesco Canonaco & Samuël Weber & Arjo Segers & Jeroen J. P. Kuene, 2020. "Sources of particulate-matter air pollution and its oxidative potential in Europe," Nature, Nature, vol. 587(7834), pages 414-419, November.
    2. Börjesson, Maria & Eliasson, Jonas & Hugosson, Muriel & Brundell-Freij, Karin, 2012. "The Stockholm congestion charges – five years on. Effects, acceptability and lessons learnt," Working papers in Transport Economics 2012:3, CTS - Centre for Transport Studies Stockholm (KTH and VTI).
    3. Börjesson, Maria & Eliasson, Jonas & Hugosson, Muriel B. & Brundell-Freij, Karin, 2012. "The Stockholm congestion charges—5 years on. Effects, acceptability and lessons learnt," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 1-12.
    4. David Segersson & Kristina Eneroth & Lars Gidhagen & Christer Johansson & Gunnar Omstedt & Anders Engström Nylén & Bertil Forsberg, 2017. "Health Impact of PM 10 , PM 2.5 and Black Carbon Exposure Due to Different Source Sectors in Stockholm, Gothenburg and Umea, Sweden," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-21, July.
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