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Forecasting of Lung Cancer Incident Cases at the Small-Area Level in Victoria, Australia

Author

Listed:
  • Win Wah

    (Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne 3004, Australia)

  • Rob G. Stirling

    (Department of Allergy, Immunology & Respiratory Medicine, Alfred Health, Melbourne 3004, Australia
    Department of Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne 3168, Australia)

  • Susannah Ahern

    (Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne 3004, Australia)

  • Arul Earnest

    (Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne 3004, Australia)

Abstract

Predicting lung cancer cases at the small-area level is helpful to quantify the lung cancer burden for health planning purposes at the local geographic level. Using Victorian Cancer Registry (2001–2018) data, this study aims to forecast lung cancer counts at the local government area (LGA) level over the next ten years (2019–2028) in Victoria, Australia. We used the Age-Period-Cohort approach to estimate the annual age-specific incidence and utilised Bayesian spatio-temporal models that account for non-linear temporal trends and area-level risk factors. Compared to 2001, lung cancer incidence increased by 28.82% from 1353 to 1743 cases for men and 78.79% from 759 to 1357 cases for women in 2018. Lung cancer counts are expected to reach 2515 cases for men and 1909 cases for women in 2028, with a corresponding 44% and 41% increase. The majority of LGAs are projected to have an increasing trend for both men and women by 2028. Unexplained area-level spatial variation substantially reduced after adjusting for the elderly population in the model. Male and female lung cancer cases are projected to rise at the state level and in each LGA in the next ten years. Population growth and an ageing population largely contributed to this rise.

Suggested Citation

  • Win Wah & Rob G. Stirling & Susannah Ahern & Arul Earnest, 2021. "Forecasting of Lung Cancer Incident Cases at the Small-Area Level in Victoria, Australia," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(10), pages 1-13, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:18:y:2021:i:10:p:5069-:d:552455
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Francisca Corpas-Burgos & Miguel A. Martinez-Beneito, 2021. "An Autoregressive Disease Mapping Model for Spatio-Temporal Forecasting," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(4), pages 1-17, February.
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