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Reductions in Labor Capacity from Intensified Heat Stress in China under Future Climate Change

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  • Xingcai Liu

    (Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China)

Abstract

Heat stress would be intensified under global warming and become a key issue of occupational health for labor force working outdoors. The changes in labor force would affect regional socioeconomic development. So far, changes in labor force due to heat stress are not well documented in China. In this study, heat stress based on wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT), which combines the thermal effects on the human body of both temperature and humidity, is projected for the near future (2021–2050) and the end of the century (2071–2099). Changes in labor capacity are then estimated for heavy and light work based on the relationships between labor capacity and the WBGT. Low and high emission scenarios, namely Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 and RCP8.5, are considered for the future projections in the hottest two months (July and August) in China. Results suggest that the WBGT would increase by more than 3–5 °C by the end of the century. The labor capacity would decrease by more than 40% for both heavy and light work in considerable areas such as South and East China, where there is a large population and developed economy. This indicates that labor force would reduce significantly due to intensified heat stress. This study calls for special attention to the impact of heat stress on occupational health and the labor force in China in the future.

Suggested Citation

  • Xingcai Liu, 2020. "Reductions in Labor Capacity from Intensified Heat Stress in China under Future Climate Change," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(4), pages 1-15, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:17:y:2020:i:4:p:1278-:d:321705
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    1. Ying Sun & Xuebin Zhang & Francis W. Zwiers & Lianchun Song & Hui Wan & Ting Hu & Hong Yin & Guoyu Ren, 2014. "Rapid increase in the risk of extreme summer heat in Eastern China," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 4(12), pages 1082-1085, December.
    2. John P. Dunne & Ronald J. Stouffer & Jasmin G. John, 2013. "Reductions in labour capacity from heat stress under climate warming," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 3(6), pages 563-566, June.
    3. Kerstin K. Zander & Wouter J. W. Botzen & Elspeth Oppermann & Tord Kjellstrom & Stephen T. Garnett, 2015. "Heat stress causes substantial labour productivity loss in Australia," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 5(7), pages 647-651, July.
    4. Karen Smoyer-Tomic & Robyn Kuhn & Alana Hudson, 2003. "Heat Wave Hazards: An Overview of Heat Wave Impacts in Canada," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 28(2), pages 465-486, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Andrew Hall & Ana Horta, 2023. "Broad Scale Spatial Modelling of Wet Bulb Globe Temperature to Investigate Impact of Shade and Airflow on Heat Injury Risk and Labour Capacity in Warm to Hot Climates," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(15), pages 1-17, August.

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