IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jijerp/v17y2020i24p9400-d462515.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Two-Source Capture-Recapture Method to Estimate the Incidence of Acute Flaccid Paralysis in the Marches Region (Italy)

Author

Listed:
  • Pamela Barbadoro

    (Department of Biomedical Science and Public Health, Università Politecnica delle Marche, via Tronto 10/A, 6, 60121 Ancona, Italy
    Infection Control Unit, AOU Ospedali Riuniti di Ancona, via Conca, 60126 Torrette di Ancona, Italy)

  • Aurora Luciani

    (Department of Biomedical Science and Public Health, Università Politecnica delle Marche, via Tronto 10/A, 6, 60121 Ancona, Italy)

  • Matteo Ciotti

    (Department of Biomedical Science and Public Health, Università Politecnica delle Marche, via Tronto 10/A, 6, 60121 Ancona, Italy)

  • Marcello Mario D’Errico

    (Department of Biomedical Science and Public Health, Università Politecnica delle Marche, via Tronto 10/A, 6, 60121 Ancona, Italy
    Infection Control Unit, AOU Ospedali Riuniti di Ancona, via Conca, 60126 Torrette di Ancona, Italy)

  • on behalf of the AFP Working Collaborative Group

    (School of Hygiene and Preventive Medicine, Department of Biomedical Science and Public Health, Università Politecnica delle Marche, via Tronto 10/A, 6, 60121 Ancona, Italy
    AFP Working Collaborative Group: Anna Marigliano, Antonella D’Alleva, Claudia Recanatini, Marina Di Vincenzo, Jacopo Dolcini, Lara Rita Napolitano, Valerio Pasquale Di Buono, Marco Lombardi.)

Abstract

A combination of high infant immunization coverage and surveillance of acute flaccid paralysis (AFP) cases, plays a critical role in polio eradication. This study aimed to estimate the incidence of AFP, to evaluate the completeness of AFP ascertainment during the years, age groups and gender, and to define the main associated diagnosis among children aged under 15 in the Marches region of Italy. Analysis was performed on data from the active AFP surveillance system and the hospital discharge records in the 2006–2014 period. The two-source capture-recapture method was applied. After cross-validation, 30 AFP compatible conditions as defined by the WHO were identified, with an incidence estimate of 1.91 cases of AFP per 100,000 children under 15 years (95% CI = 1.4–2.6/100,000). Guillain–Barrè syndrome was the most common diagnosis. A significant difference ( p < 0.05) has been registered in the estimated probability of case ascertainment in females. The reasons for the lower reporting of cases in females are unknown. Specific research and the implementation of a more sensitive surveillance system are essential in verifying potential inequalities and to succeed in the polio eradication initiative.

Suggested Citation

  • Pamela Barbadoro & Aurora Luciani & Matteo Ciotti & Marcello Mario D’Errico & on behalf of the AFP Working Collaborative Group, 2020. "Two-Source Capture-Recapture Method to Estimate the Incidence of Acute Flaccid Paralysis in the Marches Region (Italy)," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(24), pages 1-8, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:17:y:2020:i:24:p:9400-:d:462515
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/17/24/9400/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/17/24/9400/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sarah Brittain & Dankmar Böhning, 2009. "Estimators in capture–recapture studies with two sources," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 93(1), pages 23-47, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chatterjee Kiranmoy & Mukherjee Diganta, 2020. "Identifying the Direction of Behavioral Dependence in Two-Sample Capture-Recapture Study," Journal of Official Statistics, Sciendo, vol. 36(1), pages 25-48, March.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:17:y:2020:i:24:p:9400-:d:462515. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.