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Incidence and Risk Assessment for Atrial Fibrillation at 5 Years: Hypertensive Diabetic Cohort

Author

Listed:
  • Eulalia Muria-Subirats

    (Department of Primary Care, Catalonian Health Institute, Institute for Research in Primary Health Care Jordi Gol i Gurina (IDIAPJGol) Rovira i Virgili University, 43500 Tortosa, Spain)

  • Josep Lluis Clua-Espuny

    (Department of Primary Care, Catalonian Health Institute, Institute for Research in Primary Health Care Jordi Gol i Gurina (IDIAPJGol) Rovira i Virgili University, 43500 Tortosa, Spain)

  • Juan Ballesta-Ors

    (Department of Primary Care, UUDD Terres de l’Ebre-Tortosa, Catalonian Health Institute, 43500 Tortosa, Spain)

  • Blanca Lorman-Carbo

    (Department of Primary Care, UUDD Terres de l’Ebre-Tortosa, Catalonian Health Institute, 43500 Tortosa, Spain)

  • Iñigo Lechuga-Duran

    (Department of Cardiology, Catalonian Health Institute, Hospital Verge de la Cinta, Institut de Recerca Sanitària Pere Virgili (IISPV), 43500 Tortosa, Spain)

  • Jose Fernández-Saez

    (Unitat de Suport a la Recerca Terres de l’Ebre, Fundació Institut Universitari per a la recerca a l’Atenció Primària de Salut Jordi Gol i Gurina (IDIAPJGol), 43500 Tortosa, Spain
    Unidat de Recerca, Gerència Territorial Terres de l´Ebre, Institut Catalá de la Salut, 43500 Tortosa, Spain
    Facultat de Enfermería, Campus Terres de l´Ebre, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, 43500 Tortosa, Spain)

  • Roger Pla-Farnos

    (Primary Care Research Group, Department of Medicine and Surgery, Rovira I Virgili University, 43003 Tarragona, Spain)

  • on behalf members of AFRICAT Group

    (AFRICAT Research Group, Institute for Research in Primary Health Care Jordi Gol i Gurina (IDIAPJGol), Gran Via de les Corts Catalanes, 587, 08007 Barcelona, Spain)

Abstract

(1) Background: The link between diabetes and hypertension is mutual and reciprocal, increasing the risks for the development of atrial fibrillation (AF). The main objective was to develop a prediction model for AF in a population with both diabetes and hypertension at five years of follow-up. (2) Methods: A multicenter and community-based cohort study was undertaken of 8237 hypertensive diabetic patients without AF between 1 January 2103 and 31 December 2017. Multivariate Cox proportional-hazards regression models were used to identify predictors AF and to stratify risk scores by quartiles. (3) Results: AF incidence was 10.5/1000 people/years (95% confidence interval (CI) 9.5–11.5), higher in men. The independent prognostic factors identified: age (hazard ratio (HR) 1.07 95% CI 1.05–1.09, p < 0.001), weight (HR 1.03 95% CI 1.02–1.04, p < 0.001), CHA 2 DS 2 VASc score (HR 1.57 95% CI 1.16–2.13, p = 0.003) and female gender (HR 0.55 95% CI 0.37–0.82, p = 0.004). Q4 (highest-risk group for AF) had the highest AF incidence, stroke and mortality, and the smallest number needed to screen to detect one case of AF. (4) Conclusions: Risk-based screening for AF should be used in high cardiovascular risk patients as the hypertensive diabetics, for treatment of modifiable cardiovascular risk, and monitoring AF detection.

Suggested Citation

  • Eulalia Muria-Subirats & Josep Lluis Clua-Espuny & Juan Ballesta-Ors & Blanca Lorman-Carbo & Iñigo Lechuga-Duran & Jose Fernández-Saez & Roger Pla-Farnos & on behalf members of AFRICAT Group, 2020. "Incidence and Risk Assessment for Atrial Fibrillation at 5 Years: Hypertensive Diabetic Cohort," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(10), pages 1-11, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:17:y:2020:i:10:p:3491-:d:359187
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    Cited by:

    1. Blanca Lorman-Carbó & Josep Lluis Clua-Espuny & Eulalia Muria-Subirats & Juan Ballesta-Ors & Maria Antònia González-Henares & Meritxell Pallejà-Millán & Francisco M. Martín-Luján, 2021. "Adjusted Morbidity Groups and Intracerebral Haemorrhage: A Retrospective Primary Care Cohort Study," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(24), pages 1-15, December.

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