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Development of Accident Probability Index Using Surrogate Indicators of Chemical Accidents in Chemical Plants

Author

Listed:
  • Da-An Huh

    (Department of Health Science, Korea University, Anam-ro 145, Seongbuk-gu, Seoul 02841, Korea
    The authors contributed equally to the publication.)

  • Eun-Hae Huh

    (Department of Health Science, Korea University, Anam-ro 145, Seongbuk-gu, Seoul 02841, Korea
    The authors contributed equally to the publication.)

  • Sang-Hoon Byeon

    (Department of Health and Safety Convergence Science, Korea University, Anam-ro 145, Seongbuk-gu, Seoul 02841, Korea)

  • Jong-Ryeul Sohn

    (Department of Health Science, Korea University, Anam-ro 145, Seongbuk-gu, Seoul 02841, Korea)

  • Kyong Whan Moon

    (Department of Health and Safety Convergence Science, Korea University, Anam-ro 145, Seongbuk-gu, Seoul 02841, Korea)

Abstract

To reduce damage caused by chemical accidents, it is important to establish a prevention system for chemical accidents. The first step in the prevention of chemical accidents is to screen the high-risk chemical plants. Risk index, one of the screening methods, can indirectly estimate the risk at each chemical plant. For calculating the risk index, the probability of an accident needs to be estimated, which requires complex calculation and confidential data from plants that are difficult to obtain. Therefore, we developed a new index, the accident probability index, to estimate accident probability in chemical plants using readily accessible data. We conducted a literature survey on the existing risk indices and interviewed chemical experts and government chemical managers to select surrogate indicators related to chemical accidents, and four indicators were chosen: hazardous characteristics of chemicals, handling volume, records of accident frequency, and national accident frequency of chemicals. We calculated the accident probability index for 4520 chemical plants, and index value means was 5.324 (95% confidence interval (CI): 3.156, 7.493). An increase by 10 in the index value denoted a 1.06-fold (95% CI: 1.04, 1.08) increase in the odds ratio for actual accident occurrence. The accident frequency of the fourth quartile of the index value was 4.30 times (95% CI: 1.72, 10.75) higher than those of the first quartile.

Suggested Citation

  • Da-An Huh & Eun-Hae Huh & Sang-Hoon Byeon & Jong-Ryeul Sohn & Kyong Whan Moon, 2019. "Development of Accident Probability Index Using Surrogate Indicators of Chemical Accidents in Chemical Plants," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(18), pages 1-12, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:16:y:2019:i:18:p:3271-:d:264658
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Da-An Huh & Hong Lyuer Lim & Jong-Ryeul Sohn & Sang-Hoon Byeon & Soonyoung Jung & Woo-Kyun Lee & Kyong Whan Moon, 2018. "Development of a Screening Method for Health Hazard Ranking and Scoring of Chemicals Using the Mahalanobis–Taguchi System," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 15(10), pages 1-11, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mingqing Su & Lijun Wei & Shennan Zhou & Guoliang Yang & Rujun Wang & Yingquan Duo & Sining Chen & Mingliang Sun & Jiahang Li & Xiangbei Kong, 2022. "Study on Dynamic Probability and Quantitative Risk Calculation Method of Domino Accident in Pool Fire in Chemical Storage Tank Area," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(24), pages 1-18, December.

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