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Estimation of Dietary Intake of Radionuclides and Effectiveness of Regulation after the Fukushima Accident and in Virtual Nuclear Power Plant Accident Scenarios

Author

Listed:
  • Michio Murakami

    (Department of Health Risk Communication, Fukushima Medical University School of Medicine, 1 Hikarigaoka, Fukushima 960-1295, Japan)

  • Takao Nirasawa

    (Department of Health Risk Communication, Fukushima Medical University School of Medicine, 1 Hikarigaoka, Fukushima 960-1295, Japan)

  • Takao Yoshikane

    (Institute of Industrial Science, University of Tokyo, 5-1-5 Kashiwanoha Kashiwa, Chiba 277-8574, Japan)

  • Keisuke Sueki

    (Faculty of Pure and Applied Sciences, University of Tsukuba, 1-1-1 Tennodai, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8577, Japan)

  • Kimikazu Sasa

    (Faculty of Pure and Applied Sciences, University of Tsukuba, 1-1-1 Tennodai, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8577, Japan)

  • Kei Yoshimura

    (Institute of Industrial Science, University of Tokyo, 5-1-5 Kashiwanoha Kashiwa, Chiba 277-8574, Japan)

Abstract

Evaluation of radiation exposure from diet is necessary under the assumption of a virtual accident as a part of emergency preparedness. Here, we developed a model with complete consideration of the regional food trade using deposition data simulated by a transport model, and estimated the dietary intake of radionuclides and the effectiveness of regulation (e.g., restrictions on the distribution of foods) after the Fukushima accident and in virtual accident scenarios. We also evaluated the dilution factors (i.e., ratios of contaminated foods to consumed foods) and cost-effectiveness of regulation as basic information for setting regulatory values. The doses estimated under actual emission conditions were generally consistent with those observed in food-duplicate and market-basket surveys within a factor of three. Regulation of restricted food distribution resulted in reductions in the doses of 54–65% in the nearest large city to the nuclear power plant. The dilution factors under actual emission conditions were 4.4% for radioiodine and 2.7% for radiocesium, which are ~20 times lower than those used in the Japanese provisional regulation values after the Fukushima accident. Strict regulation worsened the cost-effectiveness for both radionuclides. This study highlights the significance and utility of the developed model for a risk analysis of emergency preparedness and regulation.

Suggested Citation

  • Michio Murakami & Takao Nirasawa & Takao Yoshikane & Keisuke Sueki & Kimikazu Sasa & Kei Yoshimura, 2018. "Estimation of Dietary Intake of Radionuclides and Effectiveness of Regulation after the Fukushima Accident and in Virtual Nuclear Power Plant Accident Scenarios," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 15(8), pages 1-11, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:15:y:2018:i:8:p:1589-:d:160170
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Takahiro Tsuge & Atsuo Kishimoto & Kenji Takeuchi, 2005. "A Choice Experiment Approach to the Valuation of Mortality," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 31(1), pages 73-95, July.
    2. Michio Murakami & Masaharu Tsubokura & Kyoko Ono & Shuhei Nomura & Tomoyoshi Oikawa, 2017. "Additional risk of diabetes exceeds the increased risk of cancer caused by radiation exposure after the Fukushima disaster," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(9), pages 1-14, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Shuhei Nomura & Michio Murakami, 2018. "Public Health Preparedness for and Response to Nuclear Disasters: An Editorial," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 15(11), pages 1-4, November.

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